Monday, July 25, 2005
Heat Wave
Jason Samenow @ 12:00 AM
A Heat Advisory is in Effect through 8pm Tuesday
The record setting, deadly heat wave that had Vegas and Phoenix simmering, scorched Denver and baked Chicago arrives here today. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday should range from 94-102 with high humidity and heat indices from 100-115. Here are the daily details...
Today: Don't be surprised if there are morning thunderstorms (per yesterday's discussion) on the leading edge of this warm oppressive, air mass. I'd put the odds of storms at 50/50. By the late morning or early afternoon, the sun should emerge and it will become increasingly hot and humid. Highs should be in the mid 90s, with heat indices between 100-105.
Tuesday: Hazy, hot and very humid. Expect highs of 97-102. Heat indices should range from 105-115.
Wednesday: Continued hot and humid, with storms possible late as a cold front approaches. Expect highs from 95-99.
Thursday through Sunday: Relief. In the wake of cold front, temperatures and humidity levels should drop -- with much more comfortable highs in the mid 80s. The said front bringing us relief will stall to our south with waves forming along it. We'll have to watch it to make sure the front and/or waves along it do not drift northward enough to increase rain chances and humidity.
Heat Safety
Heat kills more people than hurricanes, floods, lightning and tornadoes combined. The elderly, the young and those without access to air conditioning are most vulnerable to extreme heat. Urban areas are often significantly hotter than surrounding areas due to the urban heat island effect. Please see this fact sheet for tips on planning for and responding to excessive heat: It's Too Darn Hot: Planning for Excessive Heat Events. During this heat wave, stay hydrated and check on older relatives and anyone you know who does not have access to air conditioning.
Tropical update
With Gert moving onshore northern Mexico, and Franklin weakening -- at last things are quieting down a bit. Nonetheless, while the "official" word on Franklin is that he will continue moving away and dissipate, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to his future path and intensity -- with one model bringing him back towards the U.S. coast. In other words, it ain't over with Franklin til it's over, and we'll keep watching him.
CapitalWeather suffers first loss in high temp forecasting contest
Last week, I took on the National Weather Service (NWS) in the weekly high temperature forecasting contest and was narrowly defeated. I averaged 2.85 degrees off/forecast compared to NWS's 2.4 degrees off/forecast. These scores translate to grades of B- and B, respectively. I was winning the contest until yesterday when I was a pitiful 8 degrees off (forecasted 93, actual was 85). Essentially, I called the start of the heat wave one day too soon. My record is now 2-1-1.
I found this week's guest competitor at the EasternUSWX.com message board. His name is Matthew McConnell and he is an 18 year-old college student (and judging from his 3,000+ postings at EasternUSWx, a weather junkie) from Springfield, VA. You can see how his forecast compares to my mine in the graph at the top of the post. Our forecasts, prepared independently, are remarkably similar--so whoever wins will do so narrowly. If you're interested in participating in this competition in future weeks, contact us.
The record setting, deadly heat wave that had Vegas and Phoenix simmering, scorched Denver and baked Chicago arrives here today. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday should range from 94-102 with high humidity and heat indices from 100-115. Here are the daily details...
Today: Don't be surprised if there are morning thunderstorms (per yesterday's discussion) on the leading edge of this warm oppressive, air mass. I'd put the odds of storms at 50/50. By the late morning or early afternoon, the sun should emerge and it will become increasingly hot and humid. Highs should be in the mid 90s, with heat indices between 100-105.Tuesday: Hazy, hot and very humid. Expect highs of 97-102. Heat indices should range from 105-115.
Wednesday: Continued hot and humid, with storms possible late as a cold front approaches. Expect highs from 95-99.
Thursday through Sunday: Relief. In the wake of cold front, temperatures and humidity levels should drop -- with much more comfortable highs in the mid 80s. The said front bringing us relief will stall to our south with waves forming along it. We'll have to watch it to make sure the front and/or waves along it do not drift northward enough to increase rain chances and humidity.
Heat Safety
Heat kills more people than hurricanes, floods, lightning and tornadoes combined. The elderly, the young and those without access to air conditioning are most vulnerable to extreme heat. Urban areas are often significantly hotter than surrounding areas due to the urban heat island effect. Please see this fact sheet for tips on planning for and responding to excessive heat: It's Too Darn Hot: Planning for Excessive Heat Events. During this heat wave, stay hydrated and check on older relatives and anyone you know who does not have access to air conditioning.
Tropical update
With Gert moving onshore northern Mexico, and Franklin weakening -- at last things are quieting down a bit. Nonetheless, while the "official" word on Franklin is that he will continue moving away and dissipate, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to his future path and intensity -- with one model bringing him back towards the U.S. coast. In other words, it ain't over with Franklin til it's over, and we'll keep watching him.
CapitalWeather suffers first loss in high temp forecasting contest
Last week, I took on the National Weather Service (NWS) in the weekly high temperature forecasting contest and was narrowly defeated. I averaged 2.85 degrees off/forecast compared to NWS's 2.4 degrees off/forecast. These scores translate to grades of B- and B, respectively. I was winning the contest until yesterday when I was a pitiful 8 degrees off (forecasted 93, actual was 85). Essentially, I called the start of the heat wave one day too soon. My record is now 2-1-1.
I found this week's guest competitor at the EasternUSWX.com message board. His name is Matthew McConnell and he is an 18 year-old college student (and judging from his 3,000+ postings at EasternUSWx, a weather junkie) from Springfield, VA. You can see how his forecast compares to my mine in the graph at the top of the post. Our forecasts, prepared independently, are remarkably similar--so whoever wins will do so narrowly. If you're interested in participating in this competition in future weeks, contact us.
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