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It's The Same Old Song

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM


Another day is on tap much like yesterday. Highs will be in the low 90s with very high humidity causing the heat index to near 100 degrees. As such the National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for the entire Metro area. Expect Partly Cloudy skies becoming Mostly Cloudy in the afternoon with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Hurricane Emily Update

After hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, Hurricane Emily is strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and should strike the Mexican East Coast, South of Texas overnight tonight. A stretch of South Texas could see Tropical Storm force winds with near Hurricane force gusts. Emily is not expected to directly affect our weather here in DC.

El-Nino and upcoming Winter

The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has issued their ENSO forecast, or El Nino Southern Oscillation, through mid-January. They expect Neutral conditions to persist throughout this period, with SST Anomalies, or the deviation from normal of Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, to be slightly above normal. This means, that El Nino and La Nina conditions are not forecast, but a weak El Nino would be more likely if such conditions were to develop. ENSO has been a significant determinant of the type of weather we receive in the winter. Weak to Moderate El Nino's have led to many of our snowiest winters such as 2002-2003. Typically, but not always, Neutral conditions have led to average to below average snowfall. Temperatures have been more variable. Although the current forecast is for Neutral/Warm conditions to persist through the next 6 months, it will be interesting to see if a weak El Nino might develop as it is more likely to have snowier implications for our area. Stay tuned for further thoughts on the upcoming winter.

Image Courtesy of Accuweather

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