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Not a Washout

Steve Scolnik @ 3:45 PM

This afternoon's weather map showed that the cold front which passed through the Washington area Wednesday night had become a warm front from the southeastern corner of Virginia southwestward back to near Atlanta. Warm moist air overriding the cooler air near the surface was producing showers scattered over a wide area north of the front. At mid-afternoon, a batch of showers which had moved into the area from the western suburbs was mostly confined to Maryland north and east of the Beltway. This was part of a larger area of showers which extended across the mid Chesapeake Bay, down the Maryland Eastern Shore, and back across to the Northern Neck of Virginia. All of this was moving slowly to the northeast. Here at Afternoon Blog Central, the rain which had been steady and at times moderate for a couple of hours is now letting up. The nearest 4 Winds/Weatherbug station has recorded 0.32" of rain, with a maximum rate of 0.28"/hr.

Temperatures around the area were quite cool, as low as 73 at Dulles and 74 at National with light rain at 3pm. The following hour, National was up a degree and cloudy; Dulles had drizzle. So far today, the hourly temperatures at National have not exceeded the 76 at midnight.


As Jason posted below, trying to predict exactly who is going to get wet and when in a situation like this is at least as frustrating as predicting the location of the rain/snow line in the Washington area in the winter. Nevertheless, the so-called NAM model, which has been quite good so far with this, is predicting that the DC area will dry out through Saturday. The model says the heaviest precipitation will be from central North Carolina through southeastern Virginia and the lower Delmarva. For tonight, lows will be not much below where they are now in a lot of places: the low 70s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a shower could pop out anyplace through this evening, but overall there is a 20% chance of showers. Tomorrow will again be mostly cloudy, highs in the low 80s, and a 30% chance of showers.

Tropical Topics: Racing By Cape Race

Tropical Storm Franklin is rapidly exiting the scene, but not without gale and storm force wind warnings being issued for the waters south of Nova Scotia and the Grand Banks. It will lose its tropical characteristics shortly as it is swept up by a cold front in the North Atlantic. The forecast track brings it just south of Cape Race, Newfoundland Saturday morning.

The National Hurricane Center outlook says that the area of storms in the northern Leeward Islands still shows the potential to develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. Recon should be underway as we type.

How Many Post Reporters Does It Take . . .

The inimitable Wonkette steps up to critique the Post Style's essay on shade yesterday.

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