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The week ahead...

Jason Samenow @ 11:34 PM

While another Independence Day is behind is, the fireworks aren't necessarily over. Thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow, and I'm also closely monitoring the tropics due to at least one system that could influence our weather by late in the week...

For today, it will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms a good possibility during the afternoon and evening. Highs should range from 85-89.

Expect similar conditions on Wednesday given the continued presence of a slow moving front: Warm and humid, with more showers and storms. Highs should again be about 85-89.

The weak frontal boundary, serving as the trigger for Tuesday's and Wednesday's storms, should slide a bit to our south by Thursday -- allowing for dry conditions and seasonable temps. Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s.

By Friday, we'll need to watch the progress of Tropical Depression #3 (TD3) (which may become Tropical Storm Cindy). Some of its moisture could affect our area late in the day and into Saturday but the odds are low. There is a quite a bit of uncertainty trying to forecast the track and timing of such tropical systems 5 days in advance.

Unless the moisure from TD3 threatens, it looks like Saturday and Sunday will be mostly sunny and warm with comfortable humidity as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Top left (fireworks) image taken last night by photographer Kevin Ambrose. Did you see his incredible lightning shot posted Saturday?

Tropical Update

As mentioned briefly earlier, TD3 is currently re-organizing in the Gulf of Mexico (after moving over the Yucatan). It is likely TD3 will become Tropical Storm Cindy today and then make landfall somewhere near New Orleans on Wednesday as a medium strength tropical storm (maximum winds near 60mph).

Image courtesy AccuWeather

But that's not the only tropical system we're tracking. Tropical Depression #4 (TD4) formed last night in the Caribbean and is likely to strengthen into a Tropical Storm today. Current guidance suggests TD4 will track just south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the next couple of days before threatening Cuba by Thursday. The storm could then threaten Florida or the eastern Gulf over the weekend. We'll keep you posted.

Forecast Contest Update: CapitalWeather defeats WUSA in Week One

As CapitalWeather readers will recall, last week I started off a weekly high temperature forecast contest between myself and a rival forecaster. Last week's rival was WUSA's Tony Pann. For the week, I (CapitalWeather) averaged 2.4 degrees off/forecast (a grade of B) whereas Tony averaged 3.6 degrees off/forecast (a grade of C -- see last week's post for an explanation of the grading system). Tony will have future opportunities to gain redemption and I have been invited onto Tony's turf to participate in his own 7-day battle.

This week's competition is WJLA's Joe Witte. But there isn't going to be much competition. If you compare our forecasts (see chart above, middle right of this post), you'll notice they're essentially the same. So this just means it's not going to be possible for one of us to clearly distinguish ourself.

Nationals vs. Mets, 7:05pm, RFK
A weak frontal boundary will serve as the focus for some scattered showers and storms. I'd put odds of a rain delay at 1 in 3, and of a rain-out at 1 in 4. Be prepared with rain gear. Temperatures will fall from the low 80s into the upper 70s.

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