Thursday, August 18, 2005
10-Day Outlook: Delightful Weather on the Way
Josh Larson @ 9:00 AM
Today's Weather
Today's forecast calls for another day of pleasant conditions (for mid-August), with abundant sunshine, bearable humidity levels, and high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. Clear and pleasant overnight with lows near 70 downtown, and in the mid to upper 60s over the cooler suburbs.
Verification of Last Week's Outlook
Last week's 10-day outlook fared very well. I forecast highs in the lower 90s for Thursday through Sunday (we saw highs of 93, 95, 95) and a high of 90 for Monday - which we hit. The low cloud cover and rain on Tuesday led to lower temperatures than I had forecast, though I said we'd see temperatures during the rest of the week from 85-90, which appears to be just about right. For the period last Thursday through yesterday my high temperature was off by an average of only 1.7 degrees, which gives my forecast a solid A based on Jason's grading guidelines.
Quick Pattern Overview
The weather over the next several days will be active and changeable, hinting at a larger-scale atmospheric evolution or transition from our recent very summery weather pattern to a more early fall-like one; we'll see two separate cold fronts and associated areas of precipitation come through during this time. The end result will be a very pleasant, dry, and refreshingly "cool" period of weather by the start of next week, likely lasting through the entire upcoming week. See the GFS' representation of the amplified trough over the Northeast by Monday, Aug. 22.
The next five days (Aug 18-22)
Normal high/low: 86/68
Forecast high/low: 85/68
Forecast precip: near normal
Friday's weather will be very different than today's, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms; expect temperatures near 82/69. Saturday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, and though the balance of the day looks to be dry, some widely scattered late-day showers or thunderstorms are possible; temperatures will be near 86/71. A strong cold front will barrel through on Sunday -- establishing a trough aloft over the Northeast -- with scattered showers and heavy, gusty thunderstorms for our region; I think we have a 60%+ chance for severe thunderstorms. Early highs will near 90, but after the front passes, overnight lows will dip to the mid to upper 60s. Monday will be a truly delightful day with abundant sunshine and surprisingly low humidity levels; expect downtown temperatures near 82/63, but it is quite possible that our typically cooler suburbs will drop in to the mid to upper 50s overnight!
The next five days (Aug 23-27)
Normal high/low: 85/67
Forecast high/low: 83/65
Forecast precip: below normal
What a simple (delightful) forecast for the following five days. I have high confidence that the period Tuesday, August 23 though Saturday, August 27 will feature abundant sunshine, cool temperatures, and very comfortable humidity levels. I expect high temperatures during this period to average from 78-84 with low temperatures from 62-67, though into the 50s some nights in the suburbs. Enjoy!
Today's forecast calls for another day of pleasant conditions (for mid-August), with abundant sunshine, bearable humidity levels, and high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. Clear and pleasant overnight with lows near 70 downtown, and in the mid to upper 60s over the cooler suburbs.
Verification of Last Week's Outlook
Last week's 10-day outlook fared very well. I forecast highs in the lower 90s for Thursday through Sunday (we saw highs of 93, 95, 95) and a high of 90 for Monday - which we hit. The low cloud cover and rain on Tuesday led to lower temperatures than I had forecast, though I said we'd see temperatures during the rest of the week from 85-90, which appears to be just about right. For the period last Thursday through yesterday my high temperature was off by an average of only 1.7 degrees, which gives my forecast a solid A based on Jason's grading guidelines.
Quick Pattern Overview
The weather over the next several days will be active and changeable, hinting at a larger-scale atmospheric evolution or transition from our recent very summery weather pattern to a more early fall-like one; we'll see two separate cold fronts and associated areas of precipitation come through during this time. The end result will be a very pleasant, dry, and refreshingly "cool" period of weather by the start of next week, likely lasting through the entire upcoming week. See the GFS' representation of the amplified trough over the Northeast by Monday, Aug. 22. The next five days (Aug 18-22)
Normal high/low: 86/68
Forecast high/low: 85/68
Forecast precip: near normal
Friday's weather will be very different than today's, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms; expect temperatures near 82/69. Saturday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies, and though the balance of the day looks to be dry, some widely scattered late-day showers or thunderstorms are possible; temperatures will be near 86/71. A strong cold front will barrel through on Sunday -- establishing a trough aloft over the Northeast -- with scattered showers and heavy, gusty thunderstorms for our region; I think we have a 60%+ chance for severe thunderstorms. Early highs will near 90, but after the front passes, overnight lows will dip to the mid to upper 60s. Monday will be a truly delightful day with abundant sunshine and surprisingly low humidity levels; expect downtown temperatures near 82/63, but it is quite possible that our typically cooler suburbs will drop in to the mid to upper 50s overnight!
The next five days (Aug 23-27)
Normal high/low: 85/67
Forecast high/low: 83/65
Forecast precip: below normal
What a simple (delightful) forecast for the following five days. I have high confidence that the period Tuesday, August 23 though Saturday, August 27 will feature abundant sunshine, cool temperatures, and very comfortable humidity levels. I expect high temperatures during this period to average from 78-84 with low temperatures from 62-67, though into the 50s some nights in the suburbs. Enjoy!
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