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10-Day Outlook: Return to Seasonable Weather?

Josh Larson @ 11:30 PM

Today's Weather

Today's weather will be much like yesterday's: hazy, hot and humid with abundant sunshine. Highs once again will be in the mid 90s in most locations, though a few scattered readings in the upper 90s are possible. While there's little in the way of a convective "trigger," a stray (<20% chance) of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible. Muggy tonight, with lows near 75 downtown, but a bit cooler over the suburbs.

Image courtesy AccuWeather

Verification of Last Week's Outlook

Last week's 10-day outlook was not one of my better ones. While I did acceptably well during the first five days -- and I admitted up front that it was going to be a tough forecast with the stalled front to our south -- temperatures were cooler than I thought they were going to be on Friday (we only hit 78!) and then a bit milder than expected Saturday and Sunday. The second half of the forecast, unfortunately, was way off, as neither I (nor the models) correctly picked up on the rapid eastward expansion of hot air mass to our west. I forecast highs near 80 on Monday (we hit 87) and in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday (when we hit the mid 90s). I will give myself a C for this forecast; hopefully today's 10-day outlook will fare much better.

The next five days (Aug 4-8)
Normal high/low: 88/70
Forecast high/low: 90/72
Forecast precip: near normal

Friday's weather will be much like today's - hazy, hot and humid with highs near 95 - but expect more in the way of cloudiness; we'll see partly sunny skies in contrast to yesterday's abundant sunshine. A cold front approaching from the north and west is likely to ignite scattered (50% chance/coverage) afternoon and evening thunderstorms, a few of which may approach severe levels. Mostly cloudy Friday night, with a stray shower or thunderstorm, and lows near 70. As the frontal boundary of the cold front stalls to our south this weekend, expect partly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days; it will certainly not be a washout. Saturday's temperatures will be comfortable, near 85/70, with Sunday's temperatures near 87/71. Monday will feature a return to mostly sunny skies, with a lesser chance for precipitation (<30%) and temperatures again near 87/71.

The following five days (Aug 9-13)
Normal high/low: 87/69
Forecast high/low: 87/69
Forecast precip: near normal

Weather during the following five days looks to be on the quiet side. High pressure at the surface will lock in over the region, with moderate ridging aloft over the northeastern third of the nation: indeed, we will see fairly typical early August weather. That means seasonably warm high temperatures from 85-90, with overnight lows 68-73. Humidity levels will not exactly be low, but I expect them to be relatively bearable (as far as DC summer humidity levels go); dew points will most likely hang out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Widely scattered ""air mass"" thunderstorms are possible any of these days, but I'd put their likelihood at no more than 30% on any given day.

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