Tuesday, August 02, 2005
The Dog Days of August
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast
Today we will crack 90 degrees for the 1st time in 6 days. Look for mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. There is a very slight chance of an afternoon shower. Similar conditions should persist through the end of the week.
July Recap
July finished at 80.5 degrees or 1.3 degrees above normal for the 20th warmest July on record(since 1871). We also received 6.06" of rainfall, which was 66% above normal for the month and tied for our 22nd wettest July on record. However, the most impressive statistic was our combination of heat and moisture. This July was the wettest on record of the 20 July's that met or exceeded 80.5 degrees, backing up our claim to fame as a hazy, hot and humid area. I will do a full recap and grading of the summer outlook issued at the beginning of June once August is complete. So far it looks like July was a pretty good call after a so-so call in June. I think the original call for August to be slightly warmer than normal still looks good at this time.
2005 Easternuswx.com Weather Conference
The 1st annual Easternuswx.com Weather Conference was held in Baltimore this past weekend and co-sponsored by the DC Chapter of the AMS. Nearly 100 weather aficionados gathered for a weekend of socializing and presentations. I was fortunate to attend as well as several other members of the CapitalWeather.com team. The weekend was punctuated by the presentations on Saturday afternoon including those by The Weather Channel's winter weather expert, Paul Kocin and our own Kevin Ambrose. Kevin did a stunning presentation of his photography which captivated the audience for almost an hour. Particularly entertaining were his introductory remarks on snow and what it means to live in the North and West suburbs. I look forward to future events from this weather community.
CapitalWeather.com's Jason Samenow (left), who made some opening remarks, and Kevin Ambrose (right) speak at this weekend's conference (above), courtesy of Ian Livingston.
Upcoming Winter
Many would call me foolhardy for conjecturing about winter when it is still 90 degrees out, but that is what a love of snow will do to a person. While predictions from this range have a huge amount uncertainty involved, it is always fun to speculate, and I sincerely believe that we can already start to see the future become a little clearer. I believe that it is more likely than not that we will have a colder than normal winter when December, January, and February are averaged. I am less confident about snow at this point in time, but I think it's more likely that we will exceed our average snowfall than fall short. In terms of blockbuster snow winters versus near snowless winters, I believe the former is more likely than the latter. However, I am not terribly inclined to go with either possibility at this time. Look for more detail as we get closer to fall, and an official winter outlook sometime in September or October.
Today we will crack 90 degrees for the 1st time in 6 days. Look for mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. There is a very slight chance of an afternoon shower. Similar conditions should persist through the end of the week.
July Recap
July finished at 80.5 degrees or 1.3 degrees above normal for the 20th warmest July on record(since 1871). We also received 6.06" of rainfall, which was 66% above normal for the month and tied for our 22nd wettest July on record. However, the most impressive statistic was our combination of heat and moisture. This July was the wettest on record of the 20 July's that met or exceeded 80.5 degrees, backing up our claim to fame as a hazy, hot and humid area. I will do a full recap and grading of the summer outlook issued at the beginning of June once August is complete. So far it looks like July was a pretty good call after a so-so call in June. I think the original call for August to be slightly warmer than normal still looks good at this time.
2005 Easternuswx.com Weather Conference
The 1st annual Easternuswx.com Weather Conference was held in Baltimore this past weekend and co-sponsored by the DC Chapter of the AMS. Nearly 100 weather aficionados gathered for a weekend of socializing and presentations. I was fortunate to attend as well as several other members of the CapitalWeather.com team. The weekend was punctuated by the presentations on Saturday afternoon including those by The Weather Channel's winter weather expert, Paul Kocin and our own Kevin Ambrose. Kevin did a stunning presentation of his photography which captivated the audience for almost an hour. Particularly entertaining were his introductory remarks on snow and what it means to live in the North and West suburbs. I look forward to future events from this weather community.
CapitalWeather.com's Jason Samenow (left), who made some opening remarks, and Kevin Ambrose (right) speak at this weekend's conference (above), courtesy of Ian Livingston.
Upcoming Winter
Many would call me foolhardy for conjecturing about winter when it is still 90 degrees out, but that is what a love of snow will do to a person. While predictions from this range have a huge amount uncertainty involved, it is always fun to speculate, and I sincerely believe that we can already start to see the future become a little clearer. I believe that it is more likely than not that we will have a colder than normal winter when December, January, and February are averaged. I am less confident about snow at this point in time, but I think it's more likely that we will exceed our average snowfall than fall short. In terms of blockbuster snow winters versus near snowless winters, I believe the former is more likely than the latter. However, I am not terribly inclined to go with either possibility at this time. Look for more detail as we get closer to fall, and an official winter outlook sometime in September or October.
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