Monday, August 15, 2005
Hazy Futures
Steve Scolnik @ 3:35 PM
A weak cold front which passed just south of the Washington metro area overnight has lowered temperatures and dewpoints several degrees from yesterday. While a few locations had made it up to 90 or above, the three major local airports were in the 86-89 degree range at mid afternoon. The following hour, Dulles made it to 90, but National was only 89. Despite the front lurking through Virginia, the only shower activity on the radar was a batch north of Pittsburgh, a few very widely scattered areas in West Virginia, and a somewhat larger cluster north of Charlottesville.
Outlook
The front hanging around nearby complicates the forecast for the next couple of days, especially the timing of precipitation, but here's how it looks as of now:
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies should keep low temperatures in the mid 70s with a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms by morning.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures around 80 and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Jose, Can You See?
Not yet. Tropical Depression 10, which could have become storm Jose, made it through only 4 six-hourly advisories over the weekend before dissipating.
Meanwhile, Irene became a hurricane after turning away from the East Coast. It is now taking its 85 mph winds northeastward to the North Atlantic shipping lanes.
Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is
Want to profit if Joe Bastardi's off the wall hurricane tracks ever turn out correct? It's not open to the public yet because of market regulatory concerns, but Bloomberg reports on the opening of the Hurricane Futures Market. Patterned after last year's popular Iowa Electronic Markets' U.S. presidential futures market, the market was developed by 3 University of Miami professors and hosted by the University of Iowa. The idea is to predict a storm's landfall location by choosing among 10 possible contracts: 8 representing historically equally-likely target zones within the Gulf or Atlantic Coast, 2 more for no landfall or crossing between the Atlantic and Gulf. Contracts will trade at prices between 0 and $1, with the winning contract paying off $1 at expiration. Until the concerns of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can be satisfied, participation is limited to a group of invited professional forecasters and researchers. NOAA employees are prohibited from participating in any case because of the possibility of "insider trading".
Outlook
The front hanging around nearby complicates the forecast for the next couple of days, especially the timing of precipitation, but here's how it looks as of now:
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies should keep low temperatures in the mid 70s with a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms by morning.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures around 80 and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Jose, Can You See?
Not yet. Tropical Depression 10, which could have become storm Jose, made it through only 4 six-hourly advisories over the weekend before dissipating.
Meanwhile, Irene became a hurricane after turning away from the East Coast. It is now taking its 85 mph winds northeastward to the North Atlantic shipping lanes.
Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is
Want to profit if Joe Bastardi's off the wall hurricane tracks ever turn out correct? It's not open to the public yet because of market regulatory concerns, but Bloomberg reports on the opening of the Hurricane Futures Market. Patterned after last year's popular Iowa Electronic Markets' U.S. presidential futures market, the market was developed by 3 University of Miami professors and hosted by the University of Iowa. The idea is to predict a storm's landfall location by choosing among 10 possible contracts: 8 representing historically equally-likely target zones within the Gulf or Atlantic Coast, 2 more for no landfall or crossing between the Atlantic and Gulf. Contracts will trade at prices between 0 and $1, with the winning contract paying off $1 at expiration. Until the concerns of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can be satisfied, participation is limited to a group of invited professional forecasters and researchers. NOAA employees are prohibited from participating in any case because of the possibility of "insider trading".
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