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Moldy Oldie

Steve Scolnik @ 3:20 PM

Unlike the forecast you may have read here yesterday afternoon, rain and heavy cloud cover are again widespread over the Washington metro area. The most intense activity, however, was south and east of the area, mainly over the Northern Neck of Virginia, across the Chesapeake Bay, and into the Eastern Shore of Maryland. By 3:15, the bulk of the heavier and steadier rain had moved east of the immediate metro area. There is already a little sun showing through the clouds here in west-central Montgomery County.

Even where rain is light or nonexistent, temperatures are only in the mid 70s. If the official temperature fails to break 80, it will be the coolest maximum since June 20.


Showers will decrease in intensity and frequency through tonight with low temperatures right around 70. Clouds should break up during the morning tomorrow as high temperatures warm back up to the upper 80s; the chance of showers is 30%.

Tropical Topics

Harvey has gone extratropical, and the National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories for it.

Tropical Depression Irene continues to persevere against unfavorable westerly shear and dry air aloft. The numerical models have a difference of opinion on the storm. The majority favor a westward track with eventual intensification, but at least one (the GFS) has the storm dying out. The official forecast track aims the storm west of Bermuda this weekend, but there is still a large amount of uncertainty on both path and intensity.

Climate Clues

The RealClimate blog has a new discussion of global warming and tropical storms in light of Prof. Emanuel's recent Nature paper and the new NOAA hurricane season forecast.

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