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Steve Scolnik @ 3:30 PM

Heightened Haze, Heat, and Humidity

The official Washington DC temperature was 91 by 1pm today, as the wind came in from that hot-weather direction, northwest. What, northwest?? Yes, some of the hottest temperatures in Washington are observed with west or northwest winds, which produce heating from the downslope motion off the mountains. When this effect is enhanced by a cold front nearby to the north (not the case today), the effect can be even greater. Of course, it also doesn't hurt that the northwest direction eliminates the cooling effect on the airport from the Potomac River.

Humidity is also higher than yesterday, with only a few locations still in the sub-70 dewpoint range. Radar is mostly clear in the region, but around 4:00 there was a small cell with some moderate to heavy rain just south of Hancock, MD. This was moving toward the southwest in the West Virginia panhandle.

Tonight will be warm and muggy, lows only in the upper 70s downtown, low to mid 70s 'burbs. Tomorrow will again be h/h/h, highs near 94. There is only a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Hyperactive Hurricanes

NOAA issued its updated hurricane season forecast today, calling for a nearly 100% chance of above-normal season activity. For the rest of the season, NOAA expects an additional:
  • 11 to 14 named storms, with
  • 7 to 9 becoming hurricanes, including
  • 3 to 5 major hurricanes
This would make the total for the season:
  • 18 to 21 named storms, with
  • 9 to 11 becoming hurricanes, including
  • 5 to 7 major hurricanes
The expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index at 180%-270% of the median is above the 175% value which marks a hyperactive season. It would put this season within the top 4 of the last 50 years. (ACE is a way of representing the combined intensity and duration for all tropical storms and hurricanes in a season.)

The Emanuel hurricane intensity paper we discussed yesterday is now available from the author's web site in pdf form along with a supplement describing the methodology for adjusting older observed data.

Hellish Humidity Humor

Wonkette points out the continuing tree-wasting by the Post in devoting about a quarter of a page to an ode to fans. Apparently she missed the fact that the print edition used even more space, including an accompanying sketch, for a speculation on the humidity in hell.

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