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A Slow Shift Toward Autumn

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM


Today will be our coolest day since last Tuesday with high temperatures only around 80 degrees under cloudy skies. Look for showers and isolated thunderstorms on and off all day
. Of greater concern than severe weather will be the possibility of localized heavy rain due to training. Conditions will improve on Wednesday with a moderation back toward warmth for the end of the week and the weekend.

Mid-Month August Review

As we head toward the second half of August, it is a good time to evaluate the current situation. While we have had ten 90 degree days so far in August, the story again is the warm nighttime minimums. On Sunday Night we had our warmest night so far this summer, with a low of 79 degrees. This followed three straight days with a low of 78. We have not hit the 60s since July 24th, although I think we will hit the 60s later this week. So far, August is an impressive 4.2 degrees above normal. While I think August will finish above normal, I believe this surplus will shrink as we go through the last half of the month. Since 1970, all three summer months have finished above normal 10 times. While not rare, this likelihood is still noteworthy. The second half of August looks to be a battle between hot and not so hot. If we are going to establish a persistent cool period with respect to average, this will likely have to wait until September or October.

One year ago on August 15th, 2004 the sun rises over DC, Courtesy of Kevin Ambrose. In the wake of Hurricane Charley, very cool air moved into the area as temperatures dipped into the upper 50s and lower 60s that morning. Temps would remain cool last year until the last week of August.

Tropical Update and a look at Alaska

Hurricane Irene continues to move away from North America and Jose has not yet developed despite some promise. Despite a lull in activity, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi has issued a forecast for seven plus named storms between now and September 20th. This would bring us up to at least Philippe for 16 named storms so far.

Fairbanks, Alaska has undergone a recent heat wave between the 10th and the 14th of August. High Temperatures have broken 80 degrees three times, with an average temperature ten degrees above normal for the five day stretch. Fairbanks has reached 80 degrees 10 days so far this year. This is in sharp contrast to their average January temperature of -10 degrees.

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