Monday, August 08, 2005
The week ahead
Jason Samenow @ 8:00 AM
The week will start off cloudy, humid and a bit wet at times. Rain chances will decrease by the end of the week, but it will remain quite humid, and with added sunshine, temperatures will warm. Here are the daily details:
Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with about a 40% of showers and storms due to the remains of the old front positioned over the area. These storms will not be severe but could produce some heavy rain.
Screen on the Greencast
Showing: Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf (1966)
Location/Time: On the Mall after Dusk, tonight
Weather: Expect mostly cloudy skies and a 40% chance of showers and storms. Temperatures should be around 80.
Tomorrow and Wednesday will be a lot like today, although afternoon/evening rain chances may be a bit higher as a wave of low pressure in the Southeast moves slowly northeastward. Temperatures should range from 84-88.
As high pressure builds in, Thursday through Sunday look to be partly to mostly sunny, hot and quite humid. Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 90s, with some higher readings even possible, especially during the weekend. High indices may well exceed 100.
Last week's forecast competition: CapitalWeather loses
Last week, I competed against Intellicast.com in our weekly forecasting competition. I averaged 3.6 degrees off/forecast compared to Intellicast's 2.6 degrees off/forecast. These scores translate to grades (post provides description) of a C for me and a B for Intellicast. I made a couple important forecasting errors that explain my underwhelming performance: I went too low on temps early in the week (underestimated downsloping, which helped boost temps) and also thought we'd get the front to clear on Saturday to cool off -- but it didn't happen. My record is now 3-2-1.
This week, I'm competing against the forecast provided at AccuWeather.com (see graphic above on the right).
Tropical update
Tropical Storm Irene is floundering a bit out in the open water of the Atlantic. She 's continuing to get sheared, but will be moving into warmer water which may allow her to intensify a bit. Most models keep her out to sea as a trough picks her up and turns her northward and then northeastward. On WMAL 630AM this morning, AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi suggested this trough may miss her, allowing her to continue moving westward into warm waters, intensify and then threaten the Southeast coast. Given Bastardi's pattern recognition ability, I wouldn't entirely dismiss this scenario. Nonetheless, I think it's very unlikely given what storms in this position generally do (i.e. the climatology doesn't support it) as well the model forecasts.
FOX5 Weather Rumors
Who is going to replace Tom Sater as FOX5's morning weatherman? DCRTV provides some insight:
Humor: More Mark Mathis Video
After being fired from his station in Charlotte for drunkenness and then getting hired by a station in Grand Junction, CO, self-described "over the top" meteorologist Mark Mathis is looking to move up in the world. He's posted his resume on Medialine (a site for media job seekers). The video (requires Real Media player) on his resume is hilarious. His resume also gives out his personal website which includes some additional very amusing video (requires Windows Media player).
Today will be mostly cloudy and humid with about a 40% of showers and storms due to the remains of the old front positioned over the area. These storms will not be severe but could produce some heavy rain.
Screen on the GreencastShowing: Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf (1966)
Location/Time: On the Mall after Dusk, tonight
Weather: Expect mostly cloudy skies and a 40% chance of showers and storms. Temperatures should be around 80.
Tomorrow and Wednesday will be a lot like today, although afternoon/evening rain chances may be a bit higher as a wave of low pressure in the Southeast moves slowly northeastward. Temperatures should range from 84-88.As high pressure builds in, Thursday through Sunday look to be partly to mostly sunny, hot and quite humid. Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 90s, with some higher readings even possible, especially during the weekend. High indices may well exceed 100.
Last week's forecast competition: CapitalWeather loses
Last week, I competed against Intellicast.com in our weekly forecasting competition. I averaged 3.6 degrees off/forecast compared to Intellicast's 2.6 degrees off/forecast. These scores translate to grades (post provides description) of a C for me and a B for Intellicast. I made a couple important forecasting errors that explain my underwhelming performance: I went too low on temps early in the week (underestimated downsloping, which helped boost temps) and also thought we'd get the front to clear on Saturday to cool off -- but it didn't happen. My record is now 3-2-1.
This week, I'm competing against the forecast provided at AccuWeather.com (see graphic above on the right).
Tropical update
Tropical Storm Irene is floundering a bit out in the open water of the Atlantic. She 's continuing to get sheared, but will be moving into warmer water which may allow her to intensify a bit. Most models keep her out to sea as a trough picks her up and turns her northward and then northeastward. On WMAL 630AM this morning, AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi suggested this trough may miss her, allowing her to continue moving westward into warm waters, intensify and then threaten the Southeast coast. Given Bastardi's pattern recognition ability, I wouldn't entirely dismiss this scenario. Nonetheless, I think it's very unlikely given what storms in this position generally do (i.e. the climatology doesn't support it) as well the model forecasts.
FOX5 Weather Rumors
Who is going to replace Tom Sater as FOX5's morning weatherman? DCRTV provides some insight:
Also, we've previously reported rumblings that Rosey Edeh, from NBC's "Early Today," may be replacing the departed Tom Sater. And now we hear that Joe Smith, from WFTV-TV in Orlando, could be coming to WTTG as a weathercaster.
Humor: More Mark Mathis Video
After being fired from his station in Charlotte for drunkenness and then getting hired by a station in Grand Junction, CO, self-described "over the top" meteorologist Mark Mathis is looking to move up in the world. He's posted his resume on Medialine (a site for media job seekers). The video (requires Real Media player) on his resume is hilarious. His resume also gives out his personal website which includes some additional very amusing video (requires Windows Media player).
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