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The week ahead

Jason Samenow @ 11:56 PM

A topsy-turvy weather week is on the way: we'll start and end the week with very warm, humid and potentially wet conditions -- but with somewhat cooler, sunny and dry weather sandwiched in between. Here are the daily details....

Today will be sticky but not as hot as the last several days. A front stalled over us will increase the chance of showers and storms, especially in the evening, when rain chances should be about 50%.

Screen on the Greencast
Showing: The Big Sleep (1946)
Location/Time: On the Mall after Dusk, tonight
Weather: Expect mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers and storms. Temperatures should be in the low 80s.

Tomorrow, a wave of low pressure will form along the stalled out front, producing a good chance of rain -- which may be locally heavy. Extensive cloud cover should hold temperatures in the low 80s for highs.

By Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will build in from the northwest, drying things out. Look for highs between 82-87 with much more comfortable humidity levels.

On Friday, winds may become southeasterly increasing humidity levels and raising temperatures into the upper 80s.

Next weekend is a bit uncertain due to a front that will be in the vicinity. My general thinking is that it will be very warm and humid (albeit not oppressively hot), with a good chance of afternoon and evening storms. But if the front advances further south than I'm expecting, that would favor dryer and slightly cooler conditions. We'll keep you posted.

Last week's forecast contest result: defeats

Last week, I competed against in our weekly forecasting competition. I averaged 2.6 degrees off/forecast compared to AccuWeather's 3.8 degrees off/forecast. These scores translate to grades of a B for me and a C- for AccuWeather. I got the high temperature forecast exactly right on three days (Monday, Wednesday and yesterday) but was off by 10 degrees on Tuesday when low clouds kept high temps way below what most forecasters expected. My record is now 4-2-1.

This week, I'm competing against the forecast provided at (see graphic above).

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