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10-Day Outlook: Warm and Dry...

Josh Larson @ 9:00 AM

Today's Weather

Today's forecast calls for partly to mostly sunny skies, continued relatively low humidity levels and high temperatures maxing out in the mid 80s in most locations. Mostly clear and continued quite comfortable tonight, with lows in the mid 60s downtown, slightly cooler across the suburbs.

Quick Pattern Overview

Strong agreement between medium- and long-range computer model guidance suggests high likelihood for ridging aloft (and high pressure at the surface) to build over the eastern US during the upcoming week. As a result, I expect the continuation of mostly sunny, dry weather for our region over the next 10 days, with few, if any, chances for precipitation. The only real wild card for the forecast is the track of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ophelia, which has a slight chance (<25%) to increase clouds, winds, and the chances for precipitation by the middle to latter part of next week.

The next 5 days (Sept 8-12)
Forecast high/low: 83/64 (normal = 81/64)
Forecast precip: much below normal

Friday's weather will mimic today's conditions: mostly sunny skies with comfortable humidity levels and temperatures near 85/62. A weak cold front (no moisture associated with it, however) will scoot through the area Friday night. As a result, temperatures on Saturday, under partly sunny skies, will be a bitcooler; I expect we'll see numbers near 77/63. Milder again for Sunday and Monday with the broken-record partly to mostly sunny and dry weather continuning. Temperatures on Sunday will be near 83/65; on Monday, temperatures will be near 86/68 with a bit more in the way of humidity -- but still comfortable.

The following 5 days (Sept 13-17)
Forecast high/low: 85/66 (normal = 80/62)
Forecast precip: below normal

The aforementioned strong ridging, which is expected to build aloft over the eastern US, will likely lead to above-normal temperatures during next week; high pressure at the surface is also likely to keep Ophelia from having much, if any, impact on our sensible weather, though it is still prudent to keep an eye on hurricane models as an East Coast landfill is not out of the realm of possibility. That being said, I expect we'll likely see a continuation of dry weather next week, with mostly sunny days and clear nights being the norm, along with relatively comfortable humidity levels. Though our average high temperature for the period will drop to 80, I expect that temperatures next Tuesday through Saturday will hold in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70 (though a bit cooler across the suburbs).

Verification of Last Week's Outlook

I'm quite pleased with how last week's 10-day outlook fared. For the period last Thursday through yesterday my average high temperature was off by less than 2 degrees which, according to's grading scale gives me an A. Finally, in last week's outlook I said that, "there is little indication of an organized precipitation outbreak for our region over the period" (and hence predicted below-normal precipitation for the entire 10-day period) and that "we should continue to watch the Tropics over the next ten days as atmospheric and oceanic patterns that are conducive to tropical development will linger." Both of these parts of the forecast worked out quite well given that: (a) we have not seen a drop of rain in all of September and (b) there are currently three named storms in the Atlantic Basin.

Our upcoming winter... issued their 2005-6 Winter Weather Forecast which is likely to ruffle a few feathers. They give four reasons why they believe that, "winter 2005-2006 will be an especially cold one for the northeastern U.S." Among the most intriguing is their contention that especially active hurricane seasons correlate with colder than normal winters over the eastern US. Furthermore, they predict that the our area is in the region they believe will see "the greatest departure from typical winter temperatures ...with average temperatures of two to three degrees below normal." While I certainly don't agree with all of the rationale behind Accuweather's rather emphatic forecast, I do agree that there are some indicators already present to suggest increased likelihood for a colder-than-normal upcoming winter for our region. (Weather weenies: Britain's Meteorological Center (UKMET) has issued an experimental forecast for Negative NAO/AO conditions over the upcoming winter which would also suggest increased chances for colder, stormy weather for our neck of the woods.)

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