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Energizer Weather -- It Keeps Going and Going...

Jason Samenow @ 8:00 AM

The stretch of awesome weather continues. Expect more of the same picture perfect weather conditions today through the weekend....

Despite the passage of a weak cold front today, the sun should emerge after some morning cloudiness, with high temps around 85.

High pressure will build in from the north over the weekend, providing a northeasterly breeze and dry, pleasant airmass. Temperatures should max out each day near 82 with abundant sunshine. Overnight lows will be near 60 inside the beltway, and 50-55 in the colder suburbs.

I'll provide forecasts for football games and other outdoor events over the weekend.

Pictured: This morning's sunrise dotted with altocumulus clouds. By photographer Kevin Ambrose.

When Does It End?

There's no sign of any inclement weather in our immediate future. Temperatures will warm a bit next week and the humidity will increase a bit -- but probably not to oppressive levels. We should see a continuation of dry days with highs of 85-90 through at least next Wednesday. We will need to watch Ophelia. It's not out of the question she could have an effect on our weather by mid to late next week.

What About Ophelia?

In its 5am update, the National Hurricane Center had downgraded Ophelia to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 65mph. She probably weakened due to sitting and mixing up cool water and from a bit of shear. As we speak, she's drifting northward and should be moving over warm waters that will allow her to strengthen back to hurricane intensity.

Last night's track guidance (pictured to the left) resembled a wheel of a bicycle with spokes shooting out in every direction. While this would tend to suggest there's a lot of uncertainty in the track forecast, I think the forecast may be a bit more straight forward...

The area of high pressure that is building in over the eastern third of the country this weekend will move south and east and offshore early next week. The easterly flow on the south side of that high should push Ophelia westward towards the Southeast coast. Here is how I see probabilities of landfall (or no landfall):

Florida: 15%
Georgia: 20%
South Carolina: 25%
North Carolina: 15%
Out to sea: 25%

I'll refine these numbers over the weekend.

Katrina Notes
  • The Congressional hearings on Katrina are already set to begin. The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing entitled "The Lifesaving Role of Accurate Hurricane Prediction" next Wednesday. National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield will testify among others. The House Science Committee is also having a hearing on Katrina that day.
  • The Washington Post documents the lack of disaster management experience in the leadership of FEMA in today's edition.

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