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Sunday update: Could DC feel Wilma's wrath?

Jason Samenow @ 11:00 AM


Expect a nice, crisp fall afternoon. We'll have plenty of sunshine as well as a few clouds, with temperatures reaching the low and mid 60s. You'll notice a steady westerly wind of 10-20 mph, gusting up to 25mph at times.

Wilma update

After punishing the Yucatan, a weakened Wilma has emerged in the southern Gulf of Mexico. She's now headed for Florida.

The storm is not looking particularly healthy on satellite -- it has become enlongated probably due to shear and may also be entraining some dry air on the west side. Nonetheless, she is over the warm waters of the loop current, so chances are pretty good she can at least sustain herself as a Category 2 storm before making landfall. Her most likely landfall location remains between Marco Island and Ft. Myers.

After striking Florida, Wilma will accelerate to the northeast. There are increasing chances now that Wilma's remnants coud affect the weather in DC (40%, from less than 25% before). An upper low over the Midwest will swing eastward today and be approaching our area late Monday into Tuesday, just as Wilma is accelerating to the northeast. There are some indications that these two storms could merge into a major coastal storm (no longer tropical), bringing wind and rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. AccuWeather paints this "worst-case" scenario on its website. New England would be hardest hit, with very heavy rains, high surf and wind along the coast, and the possibility of snow in its interior. The new data coming in suggests this scenario may no longer be an outlier. Stay tuned...

Wilma resources

Image courtesy Florida Today by Jeff Parker.

Irish Trojan Blog Featured in Washington Post

Brenday Loy's Irish Trojan Blog is featured in the Washington Post's Style section today. Here's the lead paragraph:
"They're devastating, they're awe-inspiring, they're terrifying. In this season of tropical discontent, hurricanes captivate Brendan Loy."
This is eerily similar to lead from the feature on that also appeared in WaPo's Sunday Style section on the front page just over a year ago:
"If it's possible to love something just because it could visit torrents upon the Washington region, fling hail from the skies and swell streams into rivers, then Jason Samenow is smitten."
Interestingly, the stories were not written by the same author.


  • Tropical Storm Alpha formed yesterday, making the 2005 season the most active on record. It's currently in the Caribbean, and will produce large amounts of rain as it moves over Hispaniola. If it holds together over the mountainous terrain of that island (not terribly likely), some of its moisture could feed into the aforementioned East Coast storm.
  • Have you entered our winter forecast contest?

Weekend Eventcast

San Francisco at Washington
Where: Fed Ex Field
When: Today, 1pm
Weather Impact: Breezy and cool but dry. Great football weather. Temperatures in the low 60s during the game. Prediction: Skins 23, 49ers 10
What to wear: Jacket or warm fleece weather. Dress in layers.

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