Sunday, October 09, 2005
The week ahead
Jason Samenow @ 11:51 PM
Missing the sun? Don't expect to see it for a while. The week upcoming will bring clouds, and lots of them.
Daily details
Today will be overcast and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s. By tonight, some light rain is possible as a weak wave moves through.
Tuesday should remain overcast with some light rain possible, especially in the morning. High should again be in the low to mid 60s.
By Wednesday, we could see a peek of sun, and temperatures should approach 70.
Thursday and Friday look cloudy and cooler due to an east/northeast wind resulting from a storm offshore. Rain chances seem low at this point, but will need to be monitored. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s.
The weekend may see a bit more in the way of sunshine, but cool temperatures in the wake of the coastal storm -- with highs in the low 60s.
The average high this time of year is in the upper 60s to low 70s. Average lows are near 50.
(No forecast competition this week)
The lowdown on Vince
Vince, out of nowhere, appeared on the scene yesterday -- southwest of...Portugal. There may be no other tropical storm in the record books that has ever formed as far north and east in the Atlantic. Vince formed in waters between 73 and 75 degrees, which a lot of folks might find surprising because they have heard the water has to be near 80 degrees for a hurricane to form. Well that's not really true, as MIT hurricane expert Rob Korty explains in an article in Grist magazine:
After Vince, we only have one more name in the alphabet (Wilma) before we have to start using Greek letters (alpha, beta, etc) in naming storms. No sign of Wilma, yet. According to NOAA, it's now the 2nd busiest hurricane season on record.
Article on Weather Channel personality
The Clarion Ledger (Mississippi) profiles new Weather Channel personality Kevin Robinson: Meteorologist reaches the mountaintop. I have watched a bit of Robinson and think he does a good job. Amazing he's made it to The Channel at 25. Thanks to WxNation for directing me to this article.
Last, and least: Forecast Battle results
I took on Tony Pann (WUSA-9, DC) and Justin Berk (WMAR-2, Baltimore), hosts of WeatherTalk radio, in last week's forecast contest and did not fare well. Granted, I was forecasting for BWI (instead of the more familiar Reagan National), and maybe it was too much to expect a victory "on the road" against two tough opponents. Here are the results:
Justin Berk: Averaged 4.3 degrees off/forecast --> grade of D
Tony Pann: Averaged 4.3 degrees off/forecast --> grade of D
Jason (me), CapitalWeather.com: Averaged 5.8 degrees off/forecast--> grade of F
Our collective forecasts weren't as bad as the grades indicate. This time of year, due to uncertainties in the timing of fronts, temperature forecasts beyond 3 or 4 days get tricky. Perhaps there needs to be a curve applied to CapitalWeather.com's grading scale. I think we were all better than the National Weather Service.
Congratulations are in order to Tony and Justin, who tied for the win. I thought the front was going to come through earlier than it did and got killed Friday and Saturday. My overall record in head-to-head competition against various meteorologists and weather enthusiasts (who have challenged me or I've challenged) is now 6-3-1. I look forward to taking on Justin and Tony again in the future and fully expect to win the next time :)
Daily details
Today will be overcast and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s. By tonight, some light rain is possible as a weak wave moves through.
Tuesday should remain overcast with some light rain possible, especially in the morning. High should again be in the low to mid 60s.
By Wednesday, we could see a peek of sun, and temperatures should approach 70.
Thursday and Friday look cloudy and cooler due to an east/northeast wind resulting from a storm offshore. Rain chances seem low at this point, but will need to be monitored. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 60s.
The weekend may see a bit more in the way of sunshine, but cool temperatures in the wake of the coastal storm -- with highs in the low 60s.
The average high this time of year is in the upper 60s to low 70s. Average lows are near 50.
(No forecast competition this week)
The lowdown on Vince
Vince, out of nowhere, appeared on the scene yesterday -- southwest of...Portugal. There may be no other tropical storm in the record books that has ever formed as far north and east in the Atlantic. Vince formed in waters between 73 and 75 degrees, which a lot of folks might find surprising because they have heard the water has to be near 80 degrees for a hurricane to form. Well that's not really true, as MIT hurricane expert Rob Korty explains in an article in Grist magazine:Many meteorologists note that tropical cyclones rarely form in regions where the sea surface temperature is colder than 26 degrees C (78 degrees F). There is nothing magical about that temperature, however ... In truth, regions prone to tropical cyclone genesis are better characterized as areas in which air in the lowest layer of the atmosphere (the troposphere) is slowly ascending (that is, able to convect) -- this is true in the tropics, but not in higher latitudes.So in the case of Vince, he was probably able to form at a high latitude because of unusually favorable environmental conditions(i.e. conditions that allowed air to rise, like low shear, and an unstable atmosphere) in spite of coolish waters. However, these favorable conditions are proving to be short lived, and very high shear is forecast to significantly weaken Vince and turn him "extratropical" before he impacts the Iberian peninsula.
After Vince, we only have one more name in the alphabet (Wilma) before we have to start using Greek letters (alpha, beta, etc) in naming storms. No sign of Wilma, yet. According to NOAA, it's now the 2nd busiest hurricane season on record.
Article on Weather Channel personality
The Clarion Ledger (Mississippi) profiles new Weather Channel personality Kevin Robinson: Meteorologist reaches the mountaintop. I have watched a bit of Robinson and think he does a good job. Amazing he's made it to The Channel at 25. Thanks to WxNation for directing me to this article.
Last, and least: Forecast Battle results
I took on Tony Pann (WUSA-9, DC) and Justin Berk (WMAR-2, Baltimore), hosts of WeatherTalk radio, in last week's forecast contest and did not fare well. Granted, I was forecasting for BWI (instead of the more familiar Reagan National), and maybe it was too much to expect a victory "on the road" against two tough opponents. Here are the results:
Justin Berk: Averaged 4.3 degrees off/forecast --> grade of D
Tony Pann: Averaged 4.3 degrees off/forecast --> grade of D
Jason (me), CapitalWeather.com: Averaged 5.8 degrees off/forecast--> grade of F
Our collective forecasts weren't as bad as the grades indicate. This time of year, due to uncertainties in the timing of fronts, temperature forecasts beyond 3 or 4 days get tricky. Perhaps there needs to be a curve applied to CapitalWeather.com's grading scale. I think we were all better than the National Weather Service.
Congratulations are in order to Tony and Justin, who tied for the win. I thought the front was going to come through earlier than it did and got killed Friday and Saturday. My overall record in head-to-head competition against various meteorologists and weather enthusiasts (who have challenged me or I've challenged) is now 6-3-1. I look forward to taking on Justin and Tony again in the future and fully expect to win the next time :)
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