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10-Day Outlook: Welcome to Winter!

Josh Larson @ 1:30 PM

Today's Weather

Dramatically different weather today than yesterday. Our highs today, under partly to mostly sunny skies and blustery winds, will struggle to reach the mid 40s in most locations. Couple that with stiff northwest winds of 15-30mph and afternoon temperatures will feel more like the mid 30s!. Winds diminishing tonight under clear skies with a LIGHT FREEZE IN THE DISTRICT/HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE SUBURBS. Expect overnight lows near 30 downtown to the lower 20s across the suburbs.

Pattern Overview

Yesterday's massive cold front and associated deep vortex of low pressure will drive us straight into winter for the next 10+ days. We will see a strong trough aloft locked in over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with waves of reinforcing energy/cold air every few days coming from central Canada and the Great Lakes. Temperatures over the next five days will average some 5-9 degrees below normal, while temperatures over the following five days will average a whopping 8-12 below normal. Early indications suggest the potential for the area's/season's first snowfall sometime next week! It also appears that below normal temperatures are likely to last through at least the end of the month. Welcome to winter!

Note: Image above courtesy

The next 5 days (Nov 17-21)
Forecast high/low: 50/31 (normal = 56/39)
Forecast precip: below normal

After today's blustery, cold weather, expect even cooler temperatures on Friday, though the windchill will be less noticeable. Under abundant sunshine, expect highs only near 44. Clear and frigid Friday night, with lows ranging from near 20 across the coldest suburbs to the mid to upper 20s downtown. Temperatures will moderate slightly over the weekend under continued mostly sunny skies. Expect temperatures near 50/32 on Saturday and near 54/36 on Sunday downtown; cooler overnight lows are likely across the suburbs.

The next 5 days (Nov 22-26)
Forecast high/low: 45/28 (normal = 54/38)
Forecast precip: near normal?

We'll start off with the (mostly-)knowns and then move to the (mostly-)unknowns. Tuesday looks to feature partly to mostly sunny skies with temperatures approaching the mid 50s with overnight lows in the 30s. Then some uncertainty arises. Several models suggest that a potent reinforcing shot of cold air may barrel through by Wednesday, possibly dropping temperatures another 10 degrees. We'll call for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with a chance for showers and raw temperatures near 47/32. Unfortunately, the forecast for the next three days -- Thanksgiving (Thursday) through the start of the weekend -- provides us with much uncertainty. While we'll look for very cold temperatures 40-45 for highs and in the low to mid 20s for lows, there are some very early indications that the season's first snowfall may occur during this period....

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Snow: Wed, Nov 23 -- Fri, Nov 25?
Probability: 25%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: There are some very early indications that a reinforcing shot of cold air and an associated clipper-type low pressure system and/or a coastal low may bring the season's first snowfall to the area sometime between next Wednesday and next Friday. Temperatures look like they may be cold enough to support snow, especially at night. Stay tuned to for more information.

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