Thursday, November 10, 2005
10-Day Outlook: Winter Still at Bay...
Josh Larson @ 12:30 AM
Today's Weather
Dramatically different weather today compared to the past several days, with much cooler temperatures and blustery (at times, downright windy) conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies. Expect high temperatures in the mid 50s, though it will feel cooler due to the wind. Clear with winds decreasing tonight; expect lows in the lower 30s in the suburbs to the upper 30s downtown.
Pattern Overview
Weather over the next week to ten days will be quite changeable due to a fast moving jet stream. Those in search of true winter weather will have to wait at least another 10 days to see their hopes potentially fulfilled, as most modeling suggests that atmospheric factors will generally not be conducive to widespread or long-lived cold for the Eastern US over the next 10 days. Temperatures over the next 5 days, despite the next two days days' chill, will still remain above average; temperatures over the following 5 days are likely to drop to more normal levels for mid-November.
Above, the GFS model's depiction of cold air (at 850mb) bleeding into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Friday due to a fast-moving but sharp trough; courtesy Unisys.com.
The next 5 days (Nov 11-15)
Forecast high/low: 60/43 (normal = 58/41)
Forecast precip: below normal
Friday's weather will be much like today's though it will be less blustery; otherwise, sunshine and chilly temperatures will continue -- perhaps even a tick or two colder than today. I expect high temperatures in the low to mid 50s in most spots, with overnight lows near 30 across the coolest suburbs (where a light freeze is probable) to the mid to upper 30s downtown. However, our "chill" will be short-lived due to the aforementioned fast-moving atmospheric setup, and mild conditions will return for the weekend. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies with temperatures near 62/45 (cooler overnight lows across the suburbs); Sunday will be even milder, with temperatures near 67/50, with overnight lows in the 40s across the suburbs. Monday will feature mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for scattered showers as a weak front approaches; expect temperatures near 62/46 downtown.
The following 5 days (Nov 16-20)
Forecast high/low: 57/38 (normal = 56/39)
Forecast precip: near normal
The following 5 days are less certain due, in part, to model disagreement, especially regarding timing of potential cold fronts and the magnitude of colder air available. However, it is likely that temperatures during this time will cool off to more seasonable levels. Tuesday and Wednesday will probably feature more clouds than sun, with a slight chance of showers both days; expect high temperatures in upper 50s to lower 60s during the afternoon, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Thursday through Saturday looks to feature fair skies and dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures in the mid 50s for highs with overnight lows across the entire area in the 30s.
It is still unclear whether or not truly cold weather (i.e., well below-normal temperatures) will make an appearance by Thanksgiving or even before the end of the month; the long-range modeling, as well as meteorological community, seems to be split on the potential arrival of wintry weather by late November; I'll call it a tossup.
Forecast Verification
Last week's 10-day outlook fared pretty well. However, I underestimated the degree of warmth during the first several days of the outlook (last Thursday through Sunday) as my forecast highs were generally about 2 or 3 degrees too cool. Still, I called for the arrival of cooler weather by Monday, which occurred, though it seems I (as well as the models) underestimated the degree of cooling we're likely to see tomorrow and Friday. Nonetheless, for the period last Thursday through yesterday my forecast highs averaged only 2.14 degrees off the actual highs. Thus, my forecast receives a high "B" according to CapitalWeather.com's grading scale.
Dramatically different weather today compared to the past several days, with much cooler temperatures and blustery (at times, downright windy) conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies. Expect high temperatures in the mid 50s, though it will feel cooler due to the wind. Clear with winds decreasing tonight; expect lows in the lower 30s in the suburbs to the upper 30s downtown.
Pattern Overview
Weather over the next week to ten days will be quite changeable due to a fast moving jet stream. Those in search of true winter weather will have to wait at least another 10 days to see their hopes potentially fulfilled, as most modeling suggests that atmospheric factors will generally not be conducive to widespread or long-lived cold for the Eastern US over the next 10 days. Temperatures over the next 5 days, despite the next two days days' chill, will still remain above average; temperatures over the following 5 days are likely to drop to more normal levels for mid-November. Above, the GFS model's depiction of cold air (at 850mb) bleeding into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and Friday due to a fast-moving but sharp trough; courtesy Unisys.com.
The next 5 days (Nov 11-15)
Forecast high/low: 60/43 (normal = 58/41)
Forecast precip: below normal
Friday's weather will be much like today's though it will be less blustery; otherwise, sunshine and chilly temperatures will continue -- perhaps even a tick or two colder than today. I expect high temperatures in the low to mid 50s in most spots, with overnight lows near 30 across the coolest suburbs (where a light freeze is probable) to the mid to upper 30s downtown. However, our "chill" will be short-lived due to the aforementioned fast-moving atmospheric setup, and mild conditions will return for the weekend. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies with temperatures near 62/45 (cooler overnight lows across the suburbs); Sunday will be even milder, with temperatures near 67/50, with overnight lows in the 40s across the suburbs. Monday will feature mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for scattered showers as a weak front approaches; expect temperatures near 62/46 downtown.
The following 5 days (Nov 16-20)
Forecast high/low: 57/38 (normal = 56/39)
Forecast precip: near normal
The following 5 days are less certain due, in part, to model disagreement, especially regarding timing of potential cold fronts and the magnitude of colder air available. However, it is likely that temperatures during this time will cool off to more seasonable levels. Tuesday and Wednesday will probably feature more clouds than sun, with a slight chance of showers both days; expect high temperatures in upper 50s to lower 60s during the afternoon, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Thursday through Saturday looks to feature fair skies and dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures in the mid 50s for highs with overnight lows across the entire area in the 30s.
It is still unclear whether or not truly cold weather (i.e., well below-normal temperatures) will make an appearance by Thanksgiving or even before the end of the month; the long-range modeling, as well as meteorological community, seems to be split on the potential arrival of wintry weather by late November; I'll call it a tossup.
Forecast Verification
Last week's 10-day outlook fared pretty well. However, I underestimated the degree of warmth during the first several days of the outlook (last Thursday through Sunday) as my forecast highs were generally about 2 or 3 degrees too cool. Still, I called for the arrival of cooler weather by Monday, which occurred, though it seems I (as well as the models) underestimated the degree of cooling we're likely to see tomorrow and Friday. Nonetheless, for the period last Thursday through yesterday my forecast highs averaged only 2.14 degrees off the actual highs. Thus, my forecast receives a high "B" according to CapitalWeather.com's grading scale.
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