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Forlorn Fall Frigidity (FRIDAY fortunately)

A. Camden Walker @ 2:02 AM

FIGHT this FORECAST! Lucky Duck, Wish I'd hit 45º!

U.S. Park Police can't stop Ambrose's amazing talent!
Let's win this thing! We can survive lower 40s today. SCARF + THREE LAYERS + GLOVES will suit you for battling 20º wind chills this morning! Just like Last Friday, there will be sniffling and eye watering. The super-warm(scary) headgear mentioned last week might actually come in handy. Lots of sun will be our only saving grace today. Some lucky warm-spots will hit 45 degrees along with everyone's enjoyment of slackening winds. Let's enjoy this confidence level PRIOR TO NEXT FRIDAY, shall we?7 days ago, we had just broken our impervious 40 degree level, and now "30º" has fallen by the wayside. Look at it this way: You are acclimating from autumn to winter in a week. Well done!
The Monument reflects on its soon-frozen Autumnal puddle
Photo by
Kevin Ambrose

Ready or Not: Complacency & Confusion can only Breed Chaos

A brief article today looks interesting in the back of WaPo A-section. The hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have left people with very negative perceptions of law enforcement and other authority figures in government. However, personal preparedness--as surveyed via confidence in preservation of personal well-being--has not budged since before the hurricanes. I will be interested to see your comments today. Is this an apt survey to be applied to current Federal affairs regarding emergency management and preparedness? Or does this have latent social issues pre-existing outside of national catastrophes?

Overly simplified, as the stats stand in this article, I am not sure they express a tangible preparedness aspect that can be improved by the government. Hm, what about other social programs that boost an individual in general, thereby peripherally improving preparedness confidence? Perhaps. Socioeconomic status plays a key here in "personal preparedness" and money from Federal coffers going toward large-scale programs may not improve an individual's sentiment with regards to mobility or readiness. Lots covered in this short article. I shall not tackle any more meteorsocioeconomics tonight!

Snow "Quickguide": Surface Accumulation

The point at which snow is accumulateable is not debatable. Ok, it is. I just want to dismiss the easy "It's 32 degrees so it'll stick" without consideration for latent heat content all solid surfaces--especially around urban environments--still might possess at the onset of precipitation. This builds upon the material-driven Urban Heat Island Effect, whereby temperatures fall much more slowly and to less of a degree, than in exurban areas with less concrete. This following proposed TEMPERATURE-TIME "rule of thumb" has held fast for some meteorologists in the field as air temperatures fall through the 30s to bottom-out below the freezing mark--eventually allowing frozen precipitation to stick.

Even on warm days preceding snow storms, it only takes a sudden, cold air mass a few hours to cool solid materials such as asphalt & concrete. Specific heat plays a role, and sometimes you will notice metals on railings or car roofs gathering frozen precipitation first. This is because with metals, versus earthen material, absorption of heat is faster due to these materials having a lower capacity to even HOLD heat. The atmosphere easily cools metals down to 32ºF before the roads and sidewalks. And, even before metals, plants & grass respond to freezing temps first! Their ability to hold heat (heat capacity as expressed by Specific Heat for plant materials) is very small.

The Laws of Thermodynamics conclude "equilibrium in temperature" will be sought. Heat content quantity, or energy released, can indeed be large. But focusing on RATES: heat dissipation rates are constant within our Heat Sink (heat reservoir) atmosphere. The atmosphere possessing the most mass of anything on the surface of the earth, it drives the process of equilibrium in whatever direction it "chooses." Cold air will cool surfaces, Warm air will warm a surface. Physics will not allow metal or roads or houses to maintain their heat (or cold) content since we are all thermally connected to the Atmosphere.. it runs the show and is in charge of this system of energy transference!

This theory hypothesizes: It can be 65ºF and then once the surface air immediately above ground has maintained a constant temperature of ...
32 degrees for 6 hours ..
31 degrees for 5 hours ..
30 degrees for 4 hours ..
29 degrees for 3 hours ..
28 degrees for 2 hours ..
27 degrees for 1 hour .. before roads & sidewalks themselves reach down to 32ºF.
**26 degrees virtually results in extremely rapid heat dissipation of all surfaces. Road salt also enters a threshold whereby it doesn't work as effectively. A traveler would want to get off of the roads at or below 26 degrees if there is precipitation falling.

Tropical Terseness

Later today, a Hurricane Hunter plane will likely investigate a complex system in the Northwest Caribbean. It is an amalgamation of T.D. 27 remnants plus the broad Low once situated off of the Nicaraguan coast. Surface elements are there, along with favorable upper-level conditions. We shall see what might brew late this weekend. Note, too, some possible sub-tropical transitioning (and/or tropical development) of a cold-core Low Pressure system SE of Bermuda. Nothing imminent, just interesting!

Thanks to Accuweather for this great illustration
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

35% Chance of Snow: Midday Thurs, Nov. 24
Potential Impact:
Commentary: The surface looks too warm for more than a dusting from this Alberta Clipper at this point. Stay tuned, however, since there is a lot of energy coming out of Canada at the end of next week! Thursday should at least be scenic.

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