Friday, May 13, 2005
Winds shift, temperatures rise...
Jason Samenow @ 11:43 PM
How does it go from the low 60s one day to the low 80s the next day? It's all in the wind. Yesterday, easterly winds blew in cool air off the Atlantic Ocean, and the high at Reagan National was just 63. Today, thanks to the passage of a warm front and the ensuing southwesterly winds, a high of 83 is possible.
Yes, I think it will rain (60% chance/coverage), but the best chance of rain is not until after 6pm this evening. That's good news for day time activities, but bad news for Nats fans. Speaking of which...
Bill Kamal: The final installment
Local 10 News in South Florida has published the final segment of its interview with Bill Kamal: Unrepentant Weatherman Finishes Telling His Story
The Miami Herald printed a commentary on the Kamal matter.
On the left, the blue lines with arrows (called streamlines) show the flow off the ocean on Friday. On the right, these same lines are coming from southwest, bringing in warm and humid air today.While that Weather 101 explanation may be interesting, the question of the day is will it rain?
Yes, I think it will rain (60% chance/coverage), but the best chance of rain is not until after 6pm this evening. That's good news for day time activities, but bad news for Nats fans. Speaking of which...
NatCast
Nationals vs. Cubs, 7:05pm, RFK
Unfortunately, I think there is a decent likelihood (60%) of rain showers or even a thunderstorm during the game. A rain delay is possible (50%) and a rain-out cannot be ruled out (20%). Having said all of that, there's some chance we get through the game dry. Temperatures will be mild -- in the low 70s.
Nationals vs. Cubs, 7:05pm, RFKUnfortunately, I think there is a decent likelihood (60%) of rain showers or even a thunderstorm during the game. A rain delay is possible (50%) and a rain-out cannot be ruled out (20%). Having said all of that, there's some chance we get through the game dry. Temperatures will be mild -- in the low 70s.
Bill Kamal: The final installment
Local 10 News in South Florida has published the final segment of its interview with Bill Kamal: Unrepentant Weatherman Finishes Telling His Story
The Miami Herald printed a commentary on the Kamal matter.
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May Be Not
Steve Scolnik @ 3:15 PM
Currently
Several warm days this week have not been enough to erase the temperature deficit this month, and today is certainly not improving the situation. A southeasterly breeze from a high pressure area centered to our north and east is bringing clouds and early-spring temperatures to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures struggled to reach 60 at noon, and at mid-afternoon they were in the low 60's, except for Stafford and Culpeper, which were both 66. The Culpeper robot ("automated observation with no human augmentation") phoned home a report of 68 at 4pm. At the beach, Ocean City was only 54. Humidity was generally 50-60%; precipitation, however, was absent except for showers, some of them heavy, in southernmost West Virginia. The showers were associated with a warm front trying to work its way back northeastward. Behind the front, temperatures were into the 80's by early afternoon in the Ohio Valley.
Outlook
As the high drifts off the coast, the warm front will move across the area, bringing warmer temperatures for Saturday. Lows tonight in the upper 50's should be followed by highs returning to near 80 under partly cloudy skies tomorrow. There is a chance of showers late in the afternoon or in the evening. See Jason's post below for the rest of the weekend, and check back for updates on Sunday.
Santorum Status
The NWS Employees Organization has a link on their web site to an article "Reining in the Weather Service" in the Newark NJ Star-Ledger yesterday by Bill Walsh of Newhouse News Service. The article's conclusion: "The forecast for the bill's passage is cloudy. Filed April 14, it still had no co-sponsors as of May 11."
Several warm days this week have not been enough to erase the temperature deficit this month, and today is certainly not improving the situation. A southeasterly breeze from a high pressure area centered to our north and east is bringing clouds and early-spring temperatures to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures struggled to reach 60 at noon, and at mid-afternoon they were in the low 60's, except for Stafford and Culpeper, which were both 66. The Culpeper robot ("automated observation with no human augmentation") phoned home a report of 68 at 4pm. At the beach, Ocean City was only 54. Humidity was generally 50-60%; precipitation, however, was absent except for showers, some of them heavy, in southernmost West Virginia. The showers were associated with a warm front trying to work its way back northeastward. Behind the front, temperatures were into the 80's by early afternoon in the Ohio Valley.
Outlook
As the high drifts off the coast, the warm front will move across the area, bringing warmer temperatures for Saturday. Lows tonight in the upper 50's should be followed by highs returning to near 80 under partly cloudy skies tomorrow. There is a chance of showers late in the afternoon or in the evening. See Jason's post below for the rest of the weekend, and check back for updates on Sunday.
Santorum Status
The NWS Employees Organization has a link on their web site to an article "Reining in the Weather Service" in the Newark NJ Star-Ledger yesterday by Bill Walsh of Newhouse News Service. The article's conclusion: "The forecast for the bill's passage is cloudy. Filed April 14, it still had no co-sponsors as of May 11."
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Thursday, May 12, 2005
Friday the 13th -- Freak edition
Jason Samenow @ 11:00 PM
Today
I am a weather forecasting freak. Remember what I said about Friday on Monday:
Weekend forecast
If you're headed to the DC101 Chili Cook-off downtown (Independence Ave) or the HFStival at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore (you're sure to see plenty of freaks at these venues, both in the crowd and on the stage) on Saturday, I think the weather looks ok. During the daylight hours Saturday, I'll call for mostly dry conditions, and warm temperatures up near 80 due to strong southerly flow. There is a threat of some showers and storms after dark Saturday.
Sunday will be a bit unsettled due to the slow passage of a cold front. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely, with highs 75-80. This will not be an all-day rain, and there are likely to be several hour periods of dry weather. I'll try to pin down the timing of any rain in my Sunday post.
Raining Shrimp?
I'm not making this up. A freak shrimp storm occurred on a mountain near San Diego according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. A woman reported masses of baby shrimp on a tennis court in a residential development. The article speculates the shrimp were lifted off the ocean surface by a funnel and then deposited as the funnel dissipated over land. Thanks to CapitalWeather.com reader Neil for the article tip. Neil noted this shrimpy phenomenon was featured in the movie "Magnolia."
The Bill Kamal saga, continued...
Local 10 News from South Florida has continued to air the Bill Kamal (who some may consider a freak) four part interview and post transcripts on its website. Excerpts from parts one and two of the interview appeared in Wednesday's post. In the third part of the interview, Kamal claims he got bad legal advise: Bill Kamal Says Guilty Plea Was Not His Idea
From the standpoint of Washingtonians, the fourth part of the interview may be the most interesting. Kamal discusses the circumstances surrounding his firing from Channel 9 during the 1993 March superstorm:
If you find this Kamal stuff interesting, you should read his three page letter of appeal to the sentencing judge. Strange, even freaky.
I am a weather forecasting freak. Remember what I said about Friday on Monday:
Friday: This is where I disagree with the National Weather Service and Weather.com, who are forecasting highs well into the 70s. I see a cool Canadian high pressure area slipping south out of Canada, pushing through a backdoor cold front and shifting winds to northeasterly. I'm going to forecast highs of 64-68, and that could be generous. Stay tuned.Well, that forecast was just a tad generous - as temps will max out today in the low 60s. That's ten degrees below average for all you stat freaks.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Cubs, 7:05pm, RFK
It looks to be a cool evening for baseball, but not unpleasant. Expect mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 50s.
Nationals vs. Cubs, 7:05pm, RFKIt looks to be a cool evening for baseball, but not unpleasant. Expect mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 50s.
Weekend forecast
If you're headed to the DC101 Chili Cook-off downtown (Independence Ave) or the HFStival at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore (you're sure to see plenty of freaks at these venues, both in the crowd and on the stage) on Saturday, I think the weather looks ok. During the daylight hours Saturday, I'll call for mostly dry conditions, and warm temperatures up near 80 due to strong southerly flow. There is a threat of some showers and storms after dark Saturday.
Sunday will be a bit unsettled due to the slow passage of a cold front. Some showers and thunderstorms are likely, with highs 75-80. This will not be an all-day rain, and there are likely to be several hour periods of dry weather. I'll try to pin down the timing of any rain in my Sunday post.
Raining Shrimp?
I'm not making this up. A freak shrimp storm occurred on a mountain near San Diego according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. A woman reported masses of baby shrimp on a tennis court in a residential development. The article speculates the shrimp were lifted off the ocean surface by a funnel and then deposited as the funnel dissipated over land. Thanks to CapitalWeather.com reader Neil for the article tip. Neil noted this shrimpy phenomenon was featured in the movie "Magnolia."
The Bill Kamal saga, continued...
Local 10 News from South Florida has continued to air the Bill Kamal (who some may consider a freak) four part interview and post transcripts on its website. Excerpts from parts one and two of the interview appeared in Wednesday's post. In the third part of the interview, Kamal claims he got bad legal advise: Bill Kamal Says Guilty Plea Was Not His IdeaFrom the standpoint of Washingtonians, the fourth part of the interview may be the most interesting. Kamal discusses the circumstances surrounding his firing from Channel 9 during the 1993 March superstorm:
(I was) fired for an alternative lifestyle that was too alternative, or, 'He wore a pair of shorts that were really inappropriate to a company picnic.' I don't remember wearing the shorts, but maybe I did. That was a lifetime ago for me -- or that I wore an earring that I never wore on the air -- that I had pierced my ear …He then suggests his recent arrest may have been part of a 12 year conspiracy to lock him up, involving Presidents:
And pardon me for being paranoid about this, but do you think it's possible that for 12 years the government or somebody has been watching me and trying to bring me down? I don't know ... George Bush-41 would never leave the White House without seeing my forecast. My career spanned five administrations. I personally met three of them. I met Reagan, Bush (and) Clinton. I did the color for his parade, he and Gore, 1992. I mean, they knew all about me. They couldn't have known anymore about me. I was working on television, scrutinized by the government. They knew my life story. But is it possible that 1991 and '93 -- is it all a puzzle to 2004 - 2005? I don't know, but I'm just putting this out thereHere's part four of the interview: Weatherman Says Government Conspired Against Him
If you find this Kamal stuff interesting, you should read his three page letter of appeal to the sentencing judge. Strange, even freaky.
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Springing back
Steve Scolnik @ 3:10 PM
Currently
The cold front which passed through the Washington metro area between 2am and 3am this morning has moved south to become stationary across northeastern North Carolina this afternoon. Temperatures in the area at 3pm were in the range of 70-72, except for Stafford, which reported 77. There was little change at 4pm, with several readings a degree higher at 73. Light rain at noon was measured as a trace. Regional radar currently shows a few showers south of Charlottesville moving southeastward.
Outlook
Under partly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40's to around 50. Mostly cloudy skies and easterly to southeasterly winds will be associated tomorrow with highs only in the un-May-like low 60's (more typical of the first week of April).
Hockey season
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reported yesterday that 2 papers have been submitted to scientific journals dealing with the "hockey stick" issue of global temperature records. NCAR paleoclimatologist Caspar Ammann and Eugene Wahl of Alfred University have developed a computer model which confirms the hockey-stick shaped historical temperature graph reported by earlier researchers in 1998. For a "dummies guide" to the hockey stick issue, as well as links to more technical discussions, see an earlier post in the RealClimate blog co-authored by Ammann.
The cold front which passed through the Washington metro area between 2am and 3am this morning has moved south to become stationary across northeastern North Carolina this afternoon. Temperatures in the area at 3pm were in the range of 70-72, except for Stafford, which reported 77. There was little change at 4pm, with several readings a degree higher at 73. Light rain at noon was measured as a trace. Regional radar currently shows a few showers south of Charlottesville moving southeastward.
Outlook
Under partly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40's to around 50. Mostly cloudy skies and easterly to southeasterly winds will be associated tomorrow with highs only in the un-May-like low 60's (more typical of the first week of April).
Hockey season
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reported yesterday that 2 papers have been submitted to scientific journals dealing with the "hockey stick" issue of global temperature records. NCAR paleoclimatologist Caspar Ammann and Eugene Wahl of Alfred University have developed a computer model which confirms the hockey-stick shaped historical temperature graph reported by earlier researchers in 1998. For a "dummies guide" to the hockey stick issue, as well as links to more technical discussions, see an earlier post in the RealClimate blog co-authored by Ammann.
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10-Day Outlook: Unsettled to Start...
Josh Larson @ 12:30 AM
Today's Weather:
Yesterday's abundant sunshine and very warm temperatures in the mid 80s will give way to mostly cloudy skies today, with high temperatures running some 10 degrees cooler, generally in the low to mid 70s. A widely scattered shower cannot be ruled out, especially west of town, but I anticipate a mostly dry day. It will be partly to mostly cloudy and tonight, but cooler, with lows in the upper 40s in the suburbs to the low 50s downtown.
1O-Day Outlook:
The next five days will be characterized by largely unsettled weather, with several dramatic swings in temperature. A back-door cold front, coupled with a cool high currently positioned over central Canada and the Great Lakes (left image) moving to eastern Canada and the Northeast by tomorrow (right image), will cause temperatures to tumble. After highs today in the mid 70s, it will be another 10 degrees cooler on Friday, with highs only in the mid 60s. However, this shot of cool air will be short-lived, as temperatures will reach the lower 80s on Saturday; then swing back to the mid 70s on Sunday.
As for chances of precipitation: we have the aforementioned slight chance of a stray shower today. Friday will again feature mostly cloudy skies, with generally dry conditions, though a widely scattered shower, especially south and west of town, cannot be completely ruled out. Saturday and Sunday, however, look potentially much more "juicy" with plenty of low-level moisture, and a rather unstable atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. Look for a 60% of scattered showers and, perhaps, a gusty thunderstorm on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with the continued chance for scattered showers - around 50% likelihood/coverage.
After Sunday, the pattern will quiet down a bit, and we can look for more consistent, as well as predominately dry and sunny, weather Monday through the end of the work week. Look for high temperatures Monday near 70°, with lows near 50°, under mostly clear skies. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny and pleasant with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s. There are some indications that by Thursday and Friday (of next week) high temperatures will reach 75-80° with continued dry conditions.
Yesterday's abundant sunshine and very warm temperatures in the mid 80s will give way to mostly cloudy skies today, with high temperatures running some 10 degrees cooler, generally in the low to mid 70s. A widely scattered shower cannot be ruled out, especially west of town, but I anticipate a mostly dry day. It will be partly to mostly cloudy and tonight, but cooler, with lows in the upper 40s in the suburbs to the low 50s downtown.
1O-Day Outlook:
The next five days will be characterized by largely unsettled weather, with several dramatic swings in temperature. A back-door cold front, coupled with a cool high currently positioned over central Canada and the Great Lakes (left image) moving to eastern Canada and the Northeast by tomorrow (right image), will cause temperatures to tumble. After highs today in the mid 70s, it will be another 10 degrees cooler on Friday, with highs only in the mid 60s. However, this shot of cool air will be short-lived, as temperatures will reach the lower 80s on Saturday; then swing back to the mid 70s on Sunday.
As for chances of precipitation: we have the aforementioned slight chance of a stray shower today. Friday will again feature mostly cloudy skies, with generally dry conditions, though a widely scattered shower, especially south and west of town, cannot be completely ruled out. Saturday and Sunday, however, look potentially much more "juicy" with plenty of low-level moisture, and a rather unstable atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. Look for a 60% of scattered showers and, perhaps, a gusty thunderstorm on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with the continued chance for scattered showers - around 50% likelihood/coverage.
After Sunday, the pattern will quiet down a bit, and we can look for more consistent, as well as predominately dry and sunny, weather Monday through the end of the work week. Look for high temperatures Monday near 70°, with lows near 50°, under mostly clear skies. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny and pleasant with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s. There are some indications that by Thursday and Friday (of next week) high temperatures will reach 75-80° with continued dry conditions.
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Wednesday, May 11, 2005
Maybe May or Maybe Not
Steve Scolnik @ 5:49 PM
Currently
The May sun through partly cloudy skies has driven temperatures to summer-like levels in the Washington metro area ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Behind that cold front, temperatures were in the teens this morning across western Ontario and through Manitoba and Saskatchewan. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight for the Black Hills of South Dakota; snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches are expected.
At 4pm, several area locations, including Leesburg, Stafford, and Winchester, were at 90 degrees, while the official DC anomalous airport reading was only 80. By 5pm, a more southwesterly wind direction had brought the airport reading to 84. Humidities are also higher than yesterday; dewpoints range from the upper 50's to the low 60's. The nearest precipitation on radar was in northern West Virginia and far western Maryland.
Outlook
Balmy conditions will continue tonight, with a slight chance of a shower and lows in the lower 60's. Tomorrow will be considerably cooler with overcast skies, northerly winds, and a 30% chance of showers; high temperatures will depend on the timing of the cold front passage and the amount of clouds; current model guidance indicates a high of 72. Even cooler temperatures are on tap for Friday, probably no higher than the mid 60's.
The May sun through partly cloudy skies has driven temperatures to summer-like levels in the Washington metro area ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Behind that cold front, temperatures were in the teens this morning across western Ontario and through Manitoba and Saskatchewan. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight for the Black Hills of South Dakota; snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches are expected.
At 4pm, several area locations, including Leesburg, Stafford, and Winchester, were at 90 degrees, while the official DC anomalous airport reading was only 80. By 5pm, a more southwesterly wind direction had brought the airport reading to 84. Humidities are also higher than yesterday; dewpoints range from the upper 50's to the low 60's. The nearest precipitation on radar was in northern West Virginia and far western Maryland.
Outlook
Balmy conditions will continue tonight, with a slight chance of a shower and lows in the lower 60's. Tomorrow will be considerably cooler with overcast skies, northerly winds, and a 30% chance of showers; high temperatures will depend on the timing of the cold front passage and the amount of clouds; current model guidance indicates a high of 72. Even cooler temperatures are on tap for Friday, probably no higher than the mid 60's.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Taste of summer, allergies, rockets and more on Bill Kamal
Jason Samenow @ 11:01 PM
We'll experience our third straight day over 75 today, and on Thursday, we will run the streak to four. But the streak ends Friday, as summer takes an intermission.
Today and tomorrow will be pretty much carbon copies of each other. Anticipate partly cloudy skies and just a slight chance of late afternoon or evening storms. Highs both days should be near 80. As noted in my post from Monday, a back door cold front drops in late Thursday, which will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees on Friday.
Sniff, Sniff
Have your allergies been bothering you lately? You're probably not alone. Pollen.com reports high levels of oak, mulberry and grass pollen. In fact, some of the nation's worst pollen conditions are right here in DC. Levels are supposed to remain in the high range through Thursday (eight or higher). Keep the Allegra handy. Image courtesy Pollen.com
5...4...3...2...1...
NASA reports the launch of NOAA-N, a polar orbiting weather satellite, has been delayed a day due to high winds. According to NASA, NOAA-N will "collect information about Earth's atmosphere and environment to improve weather prediction and climate research across the globe."
The launch, previously scheduled for tomorrow, will now occur Thursday if winds subside. More information. Image courtesy NASA.
Bill Kamal -- a case of entrapment?
Local 10 News in South Florida has posted transcripts for two parts of its three part interview with the former Channel 9 (WUSA) meteorologist, in jail for soliciting sex with a minor (that turned out to be an undercover cop).
In part I, Kamal talks about adjusting to life in prison:
In part II, Kamal asserts he never had any intention of having sex with the boy (undercover officer) he drove to meet:
Do you believe Kamal's story? Do you think he was entrapped and unfairly prosecuted? Or is Kamal manipulating the facts? My feeling is that without seeing the prosecution's evidence, it's hard to make any judgments.
Today and tomorrow will be pretty much carbon copies of each other. Anticipate partly cloudy skies and just a slight chance of late afternoon or evening storms. Highs both days should be near 80. As noted in my post from Monday, a back door cold front drops in late Thursday, which will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees on Friday.
Sniff, SniffHave your allergies been bothering you lately? You're probably not alone. Pollen.com reports high levels of oak, mulberry and grass pollen. In fact, some of the nation's worst pollen conditions are right here in DC. Levels are supposed to remain in the high range through Thursday (eight or higher). Keep the Allegra handy. Image courtesy Pollen.com
5...4...3...2...1...
NASA reports the launch of NOAA-N, a polar orbiting weather satellite, has been delayed a day due to high winds. According to NASA, NOAA-N will "collect information about Earth's atmosphere and environment to improve weather prediction and climate research across the globe."
The launch, previously scheduled for tomorrow, will now occur Thursday if winds subside. More information. Image courtesy NASA.
Bill Kamal -- a case of entrapment?
Local 10 News in South Florida has posted transcripts for two parts of its three part interview with the former Channel 9 (WUSA) meteorologist, in jail for soliciting sex with a minor (that turned out to be an undercover cop).
In part I, Kamal talks about adjusting to life in prison:
It was an unbelievable hell. I would be on my knees and talk about soul searching. I probably got closer to God in four to five months than most people do in a lifetime. You have nothing but God, letters, letters that you write, mail that comes in. You have only to look forward when officers come by, opens big door, (it's) called chuck door, they open it up to feed you on a tray then they close it again.Read the entire interview: Bill Kamal Talks About Life Behind Bars
In part II, Kamal asserts he never had any intention of having sex with the boy (undercover officer) he drove to meet:
I wouldn't hurt a damn fly. It pains me to kill a bug. Harm a kid? I mean if I were a child molester, if I were a sexual predator, how do you become one at 48 years old? And why didn't anybody pick up on the fact that nobody came out from the left or right field and say, 'Hey, this happened to me." That, you know, well, nobody has come out. How do you become somebody that they tell you you are after a whole life of serving the community and helping people and after 48 years be what they say you are because of one nosy, bored day on the computer?"Read the entire interview: Weatherman Says He Was Framed By False Claims
Do you believe Kamal's story? Do you think he was entrapped and unfairly prosecuted? Or is Kamal manipulating the facts? My feeling is that without seeing the prosecution's evidence, it's hard to make any judgments.
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Afternoon delight
Steve Scolnik @ 3:30 PM
Note: Access may be interrupted as our blogging host undergoes maintenance between 7 and 8 pm tonight.
Currently
You don't need to go to Kokomo for another in a string of delightful May days. Here in the Washington metro area, it's a bit warmer than normal with temperatures around the region well into the mid and upper 70's by early afternoon. Leesburg and Culpeper were leading the charge into the 80's at 2pm with 81 and 82, respectively. At 4pm, readings in the 80's were widespread across Virginia; Winchester led the local pack at 82. Maryland ("America in Miniature") had nearly a 30-degree range: Frederick was sunny and 81, but a low overcast (500 ft.) and easterly wind kept Ocean City at 52. Humidities are still quite comfortable, although a bit higher than yesterday. Regional radar was showing scattered showers in southern West Virginia.
Outlook
Scattered clouds tonight will become more overcast toward morning, with a 35% chance of showers. Tomorrow will become partly cloudy with highs again in the upper 70's.
Santorum bill: Consumers and producers
Position statements regarding the Santorum weather services bill, S.B. 786, have been issued by both consumers and producers of weather information. The Airline Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) has issued a statement strongly against the bill. They state that this "legislation could result in the NWS no longer being permitted to provide the aviation weather products used by pilots." They point out that "Much like aeronautical charting, weather is a critical safety item that has a direct impact on the safety, capacity, and efficiency of the NAS [National Airspace System]". AOPA is the largest aviation organization in the world, with 400,000 members, or 2/3 of all pilots in the U.S.
The NWS Employees Organization (NWSEO) has also taken a firm position against the bill. Their web site contains a number of links to articles on the subject, including several from Sunday and yesterday. One of these, from the Charleston S.C. Post and Courier (requires minimal, but cumbersome, registration process), quotes a communications professor at the College of Charleston laughing out loud, saying, "It is a bizarre idea." The article also quotes Ray Ban, The Weather Channel's meteorology vice president, as opposing the bill.
While you're at the NWSEO web site, you might want to show your support by buying a shirt or mug from their online store. It has been a couple of decades since I was privileged to work at what was then called the National Meteorological Center, but I have never since encountered a more talented or dedicated group of scientists and technicians.
Currently
You don't need to go to Kokomo for another in a string of delightful May days. Here in the Washington metro area, it's a bit warmer than normal with temperatures around the region well into the mid and upper 70's by early afternoon. Leesburg and Culpeper were leading the charge into the 80's at 2pm with 81 and 82, respectively. At 4pm, readings in the 80's were widespread across Virginia; Winchester led the local pack at 82. Maryland ("America in Miniature") had nearly a 30-degree range: Frederick was sunny and 81, but a low overcast (500 ft.) and easterly wind kept Ocean City at 52. Humidities are still quite comfortable, although a bit higher than yesterday. Regional radar was showing scattered showers in southern West Virginia.
Outlook
Scattered clouds tonight will become more overcast toward morning, with a 35% chance of showers. Tomorrow will become partly cloudy with highs again in the upper 70's.
Santorum bill: Consumers and producers
Position statements regarding the Santorum weather services bill, S.B. 786, have been issued by both consumers and producers of weather information. The Airline Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) has issued a statement strongly against the bill. They state that this "legislation could result in the NWS no longer being permitted to provide the aviation weather products used by pilots." They point out that "Much like aeronautical charting, weather is a critical safety item that has a direct impact on the safety, capacity, and efficiency of the NAS [National Airspace System]". AOPA is the largest aviation organization in the world, with 400,000 members, or 2/3 of all pilots in the U.S.
The NWS Employees Organization (NWSEO) has also taken a firm position against the bill. Their web site contains a number of links to articles on the subject, including several from Sunday and yesterday. One of these, from the Charleston S.C. Post and Courier (requires minimal, but cumbersome, registration process), quotes a communications professor at the College of Charleston laughing out loud, saying, "It is a bizarre idea." The article also quotes Ray Ban, The Weather Channel's meteorology vice president, as opposing the bill.
While you're at the NWSEO web site, you might want to show your support by buying a shirt or mug from their online store. It has been a couple of decades since I was privileged to work at what was then called the National Meteorological Center, but I have never since encountered a more talented or dedicated group of scientists and technicians.
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Beautiful Weather
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast Thoughts
Today looks like another nice day with Mostly Sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70's. A warm front approaching late in the day may trigger some isolated shower activity, but most of the action should stay to our South and West. Enjoy the recent return to seasonable May warmth. But, as alluded to by Jason, stay tuned for the potential cooling effects of a backdoor cold front later in the week.
The above map shows that for March and April the core of cold temperature deviations from normal were centered on the Southeast coast, while the Plains and Upper Midwest saw temps well above normal. Here in DC, we were slightly below normal for the 2 months combined. More detail below.
Warm Spring or Cold Spring?
While it appears that our cold spell has come to an end for the time being, it was quite impressive while it lasted. The 15-day period from April 22nd through May 6th saw the thermometer fail to surpass 70 degrees. Additionally the first 6 days of May had a high temperature of 65 or lower, the only time this has occurred in at least 40 years. The closest analog to the beginning week of May is 1988. In May 1988 after hitting 70 degrees on the 1st of the month, high temps were in the low 60's for the next 5 days before rebounding to 70's and 80's for the rest of the month. The warmth was persistent enough that May 1988 finished slightly above normal for the month. Through Sunday, this May was running 6.4 degrees below normal, but these deviations can be eroded rather quickly with some persistent warmth as we saw this past winter with dramatic mid month reversals that erased huge temperature surpluses. Despite these occasional deviations from average, our spring so far is averaging very close to normal at -0.7 degrees.
Today looks like another nice day with Mostly Sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70's. A warm front approaching late in the day may trigger some isolated shower activity, but most of the action should stay to our South and West. Enjoy the recent return to seasonable May warmth. But, as alluded to by Jason, stay tuned for the potential cooling effects of a backdoor cold front later in the week.
The above map shows that for March and April the core of cold temperature deviations from normal were centered on the Southeast coast, while the Plains and Upper Midwest saw temps well above normal. Here in DC, we were slightly below normal for the 2 months combined. More detail below.
Warm Spring or Cold Spring?
While it appears that our cold spell has come to an end for the time being, it was quite impressive while it lasted. The 15-day period from April 22nd through May 6th saw the thermometer fail to surpass 70 degrees. Additionally the first 6 days of May had a high temperature of 65 or lower, the only time this has occurred in at least 40 years. The closest analog to the beginning week of May is 1988. In May 1988 after hitting 70 degrees on the 1st of the month, high temps were in the low 60's for the next 5 days before rebounding to 70's and 80's for the rest of the month. The warmth was persistent enough that May 1988 finished slightly above normal for the month. Through Sunday, this May was running 6.4 degrees below normal, but these deviations can be eroded rather quickly with some persistent warmth as we saw this past winter with dramatic mid month reversals that erased huge temperature surpluses. Despite these occasional deviations from average, our spring so far is averaging very close to normal at -0.7 degrees.
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Monday, May 09, 2005
Being Green
Steve Scolnik @ 2:50 PM
Currently
The warm May sun has turned the Washington metro area a brilliant shade of green under a bright blue sky. By 2pm, all local reporting stations were at 75 degrees or above, except for Quantico, where a pesky wind off the river was keeping the reading at 72. By mid afternoon, several Virginia stations had hit 79. Frederick was the warm spot with 82 at 3:22, while an east wind was keeping Annapolis at 69. Here in western Montgomery County, we saw the big 8-0 on the Oregon Scientific before 3pm. Humidity is also quite low, mainly 30-35%. The nearest precipitation extends from Lake Michigan southward to the lower Mississippi valley.
Outlook
The model guidance keeps the POPs (probability of precipitation) in single digits through tomorrow evening. Under clear skies, low humidity, and light winds, temperatures will drop tonight to the mid 50's. Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 70's, with partly cloudy skies. There is a slight chance of a shower by evening, especially to the west of the metro area.
Rainbow Connection
Kermit the Frog was born 50 years ago today right here in Washington DC. He was the creation of UMD student Jim Henson, who graduated in 1960. Thank you, Kermit, for bringing 50 years of sunshine to a stormy world.
The warm May sun has turned the Washington metro area a brilliant shade of green under a bright blue sky. By 2pm, all local reporting stations were at 75 degrees or above, except for Quantico, where a pesky wind off the river was keeping the reading at 72. By mid afternoon, several Virginia stations had hit 79. Frederick was the warm spot with 82 at 3:22, while an east wind was keeping Annapolis at 69. Here in western Montgomery County, we saw the big 8-0 on the Oregon Scientific before 3pm. Humidity is also quite low, mainly 30-35%. The nearest precipitation extends from Lake Michigan southward to the lower Mississippi valley.
Outlook
The model guidance keeps the POPs (probability of precipitation) in single digits through tomorrow evening. Under clear skies, low humidity, and light winds, temperatures will drop tonight to the mid 50's. Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 70's, with partly cloudy skies. There is a slight chance of a shower by evening, especially to the west of the metro area.
Rainbow Connection
Kermit the Frog was born 50 years ago today right here in Washington DC. He was the creation of UMD student Jim Henson, who graduated in 1960. Thank you, Kermit, for bringing 50 years of sunshine to a stormy world.
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Sunday, May 08, 2005
Looking forward and backward
Jason Samenow @ 11:19 PM
The week ahead
As advertised in previous posts, the warming trend of the last several days will continue through midweek. Yesterday, by the way, was the first day this month with above average temperatures. The mercury reached 74 at Reagan National, 1 degree above the average. Here's the breakdown for the week ahead:
Today: Mostly sunny, and mild. Expect highs of 74-78.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny early with some increase in cloudiness in the afternoon. Highs should range from 76-80 across the area. There is a slight chance of a shower overnight.
Wednesday: A weak cold front will approach increasing the chance of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the day should be dry, however, with highs of 77-81. I'd put rain chances at about 30%.
Thursday: Behind the weak front, temperatures won't drop off much. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs 75-79.
Friday: This is where I disagree with the National Weather Service and Weather.com, who are forecasting highs well into the 70s. I see a cool Canadian high pressure area slipping south out of Canada, pushing through a backdoor cold front and shifting winds to northeasterly. I'm going to forecast highs of 64-68, and that could be generous. Stay tuned.
Saturday: Forecast confidence this far out isn't high, but I'll call for dry conditions and moderating temperatures as winds become more southeasterly. High should be in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Mild, with showers and storms possible late. Highs 75-80.
Average highs this time of year are in the mid 70s.
Spring so far
A reader (M Kady) asked if it was going to be one of those year's where we go from March coolness to summer heat in an instant, without any intermediate conditions. The data would suggest we've had a lot of the intermediate or springlike weather thus far and we're gradually moderating towards summer conditions.
The image above shows high temperatures this year versus climatological average. It has been a bit cooler than average, but we've had our share of spring. It may be the spring has seemed cooler than it actually has been because in 48 days, we've had 18 with over a trace of rain, and only 3 days above 80. However, the data reveals we've had quite a few intermediate days. In fact, we've had 24 dry days with highs above 60. All this boils down to the fact that about half of our spring days have been nice, with the other half being generally damp and/or cool.
How does this spring's characteristics compare to others? Good question. Perhaps Matt will shed some light on this tomorrow...
As advertised in previous posts, the warming trend of the last several days will continue through midweek. Yesterday, by the way, was the first day this month with above average temperatures. The mercury reached 74 at Reagan National, 1 degree above the average. Here's the breakdown for the week ahead:
Today: Mostly sunny, and mild. Expect highs of 74-78.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny early with some increase in cloudiness in the afternoon. Highs should range from 76-80 across the area. There is a slight chance of a shower overnight.
Wednesday: A weak cold front will approach increasing the chance of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the day should be dry, however, with highs of 77-81. I'd put rain chances at about 30%.
Thursday: Behind the weak front, temperatures won't drop off much. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs 75-79.
Friday: This is where I disagree with the National Weather Service and Weather.com, who are forecasting highs well into the 70s. I see a cool Canadian high pressure area slipping south out of Canada, pushing through a backdoor cold front and shifting winds to northeasterly. I'm going to forecast highs of 64-68, and that could be generous. Stay tuned.
Saturday: Forecast confidence this far out isn't high, but I'll call for dry conditions and moderating temperatures as winds become more southeasterly. High should be in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Mild, with showers and storms possible late. Highs 75-80.
Average highs this time of year are in the mid 70s.
Spring so far
A reader (M Kady) asked if it was going to be one of those year's where we go from March coolness to summer heat in an instant, without any intermediate conditions. The data would suggest we've had a lot of the intermediate or springlike weather thus far and we're gradually moderating towards summer conditions.
The image above shows high temperatures this year versus climatological average. It has been a bit cooler than average, but we've had our share of spring. It may be the spring has seemed cooler than it actually has been because in 48 days, we've had 18 with over a trace of rain, and only 3 days above 80. However, the data reveals we've had quite a few intermediate days. In fact, we've had 24 dry days with highs above 60. All this boils down to the fact that about half of our spring days have been nice, with the other half being generally damp and/or cool.
How does this spring's characteristics compare to others? Good question. Perhaps Matt will shed some light on this tomorrow...
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Mother's Day Edition
Jason Samenow @ 8:35 AM
Happy Mother's Day. The weather could not be much better. Expect beautiful sunshine today with a steady northerly breeze. High temperatures should reach the low 70s, which is exactly average for this time of year. If we hit 73, it will be the first time in over a week that temperatures reached average levels.The current warming trend should continue through the middle part of the coming week. Forecast details for the week ahead will appear in tomorrow's post.
While we've been enjoying 70 degree weather, New England has been getting hammered with wind, rain and unseasonably cold temperatures. The Boston Globe reports power outages, high seas, 1-2 inches of rain and generally miserable conditions.
New National Weather Service Radar Image Display Coming Soon
WxNation's blog directed me to "experimental" radar images the National Weather Service is making available. The new radar image for our area (based out of Sterling, VA) is not yet available, but you can preview the look and feel at Boston's site, for example.
SpaceWeather.com Offers Mother's Day Sky Viewing Idea
Here's the blurb:
Got a mom? Take her outside on Sunday, May 8th--that's Mother's Day--at sunset. Face west. As the twilight sky fades to black, Venus and the slender crescent Moon will emerge. You'll need a clear view of the horizon to spot them, hanging low, but it's worth a try--they're prettier than roses!Thanks to WxNation for this tip.
Image courtesy AccuWeather
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