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Snowlovers Ready to Riot

Matt Ross @ 1:00 AM

Forecast


There is a possibility of some early morning fog, but it will quickly become sunny with highs in the mid 50s, almost 15 degrees above normal. A cold front will usher in more wintry temps for the end of the week, but as has been the case this January, the cold will not stick around and temps will moderate for the weekend.

Snow in Boston....And Hawaii!


The system that brought us a cold, heavy rain Sunday night, gave Boston over 4" inches of snow. As Boston averages over 40" of snow a season, even in warm winters they still manage to get in on the action. They are currently well short of last season's near 100", but at 18" so far for the season, things could be worse for Bostonian snowlovers.


Snow falls yesterday morning in Boston, courtesy of Jeff Reid


Although the summit of Mauna Kea in Hawaii is known to get snow on occasion, this latest storm caused a complete evacuation, and tourists were unable to climb above 9000'. The snow apparently came so fast and furious, that workers at the summit were afraid they might be trapped up there. The Mauna Kea Weather Center website has some nice webcams of the peak. Remember the time change, so check back in the afternoon if it is dark.


Blowtorch Januarys and the Following Februarys


As we currently sit at over 43 degrees average for the month, it now appears a very reasonable possibility for January to average 40 degrees or higher, or more than 5 degrees above normal. In the 64 years of record at National Airport(DCA), this has occurred 11 times. The following Februarys for these 11 years averaged 2 degrees above normal, with 9 of the 11 years finishing above normal for February. We average about 7" of snowfall for February and March. In these 11 years, we averaged 5.5" for those 2 months. However, 9 of the 11 years finished with below normal snowfall for February and March. The 2 exceptional years in both examples were 1947 and 1967. Both featured very cold and snowy Februarys. The other nine years in the sample were mostly unimpressive, although we only got totally shut out snow wise in February/March in one of them(1998). I would not attribute too much weight to this analysis. It is more for entertainment purposes than science. However, it does suggest that pattern reversal of this nature, while rare, can be quite remarkable when it does occur. I am confident we will see more accumulating snow before the end of winter. But I am quite torn as to whether February can bring us any meaningful and lasting pattern reversal. I hope to have some clarity when I post next week.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Snow: Tuesday, January 31st - Wednesday, February 1st
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: There is growing indication of a storm system off the East Coast next week. The big issue for us will be cold air or lack thereof as we will still have yet to tap into a Canadian air mass. I would lean toward rain or a rain to snow situation at this time. Of course as it is still over a week away, there is plenty of time to discuss it, should it look to be a factor for us.

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