Friday, February 10, 2006
Afternoon Update: Countdown to Substantial Snow
A. Camden Walker @ 3:45 PM
Estimated Next CapitalWeather.com update: 7:00pm
- Probability of accumulating snowfall: 85% [+5%]
- The greater DC metropolitan area will receive 4"-7" mainly after sunset Saturday before ending Sunday morning. [unchanged]
- Temperatures will dive near sunset Saturday, quickly facilitating accumulation. [unchanged]
- Forecast confidence remains high. [Slightly higher than this morning]
- No major changes have been made to the official CapitalWeather.com team forecast, except time-frame.
- Wind and Cold behind this storm will be felt for a couple days after storm departs. [unchanged]
- Points far south (Fredericksburg) and east (Annapolis) should remain all-snow. [unchanged]
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10am SAT to 2pm: Snow showers begin far S&W, then spread toward DC and points N&E |
 Travelcast: Schoolcast (Mon.): | |
What factors may raise the accumulation forecast?
- Storm hugs the coast
- Snow falls mainly after sunset
- Storm moves more slowly
- Storm remains weak, but laden with moisture, not disturbing our cold air
- Storm goes more out to sea, after passing Norfolk--and doesn't head up DelMarVa
- Storm deepens "bombs" in close proximity to us-- throwing warm air over the region
- A warm pocket in the atmosphere would changeover snow to sleet or rain (briefly well S&E of Washington) reducing moisture available to fall as snow crystals.
ACCUMULATION amounts: could still approach 8" in spots, especially S&E of Washington. N&W suburbs have decreasing chances of bullseye (7"+) snow. More likely it will be closer to 5". The CapitalWeather.com team will continue to make very deliberate and measured forecast updates throughout the night tonight.
MAP: We will tweak the accumulation map on the next post. Amounts will only be slightly raised S&E of town, and lowered N&W. You can still trust the contour lines as general guide to the striation of precipitation accumulation through the region.
TIMING: More to fall overnight. The storm is slowing based on weather model output, and efficient overnight snowfall will easily accumulate. I forecast delays regarding the snow's initial onset. Wherein the afternoon will likely feature more spotty light snow... until approaching sunset.
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The Washington Post company's storm article and Express(.pdf) "blog log" have commented on this upcoming storm.
Backfence.com is a new, local venture also covering this storm's community impact!
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