Monday, February 27, 2006
One Week, Two Seasons -- Snow Tonight???
Jason Samenow @ 12:45 PM
Meteorological spring begins March 1 (Wednesday), and it's going to feel like it -- arriving like a lamb. Before that though, we'll have a taste of winter today and tonight, with even some light snow possible (mostly tonight, see week ahead forecast). Thereafter, temperatures will be on the rise until late in the work week when they'll drop back down to seasonal norms. The complete forecast details follow.
THE WEEK AHEAD
There will be quite a nip in the air this morning, with temperatures between 12 (N & W) and 20 (downtown) early on. Morning sunshine will give way to mid and high level afternoon clouds, with high temperatures reaching around 40.
Overnight, the fun starts when a clipper system swings through along with a 50% threat of a little snow. Here are the primary talking points:
Morning clouds will give way to PM sunshine as weak high pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures will be near 50, with overnight lows near 30 downtown and mid 20s in the suburbs.
A warm front ahead of a developing area of low pressure in the midwest will try to move north through the area. If it can break through, after a few morning showers, it will turn springlike in the afternoon, with temperatures reaching the 50s. If the front hangs up to our south, it may remain overcast and cool, with highs in the 40s. Confidence is not particularly high with the warm front timing, but I'm favoring a warmer solution. By the overnight hours, I do expect the warm front through the area, and temperatures will be mild, with lows 40-45.
With strong southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes, unseasonable warmth is possible with temperatures well into the 60s. Scattered showers are possible overnight as a cold front crosses through the area with lows in the low 40s.
High pressure should move in behind the cold front, with seasonable conditions. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 50s. Friday night should have clear skies with lows near freezing downtown, upper 20s in the suburbs.
High pressure building in from the northwest will direct cooler air towards the region, but sunshine and downsloping winds should still permit highs near 50. Saturday night looks chilly with lows 25-30.
High pressure to the north and northwest should continue influencing our weather. However, we may need to seriously start watching a developing storm in the center part of country, which depending on its track and evolution, could be a significant weathermaker for us Sunday night into early next week. High temperatures Sunday should be 45-50.
Average high temperatures for the coming week are in the low 50s, with average lows in the low 30s.
In last week's poll, we asked how cold will it get in February at Reagan National. And while February isn't over, I can safely say it will not get colder than 13 -- the minimum temperature one week ago. 65% of CapitalWeather.com visitors said 13 would be as low as it would go, whereas 25% of readers thought it would drop to 10-12. A few remaining visitors thought it would get colder. Not gonna happen.
With blowtorch warmth possible on Thursday, the mercury may go pretty high. And that's the subject of the new poll for this week.
I'm looking for user feedback on the confidence bars you see that accompany CapitalWeather.com forecasts. Are they helpful? Do you pay any attention to them? Do you have suggestions as to how to make this kind of information more useful/helpful? Or do you like them just the way they are? Please let us know in the comment area.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tonight
Probability: 50%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Please see the Week Ahead section of the post for details on this minor event (if it even materializes). We may need to start tracking a situation for early next week in this space beginning tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Today
There will be quite a nip in the air this morning, with temperatures between 12 (N & W) and 20 (downtown) early on. Morning sunshine will give way to mid and high level afternoon clouds, with high temperatures reaching around 40. Overnight, the fun starts when a clipper system swings through along with a 50% threat of a little snow. Here are the primary talking points:
- A period of intermittent snow showers and flurries is possible between about 5pm and 3am, although I suspect a good bit of it will evaporate in the dry air overhead (don't be surprised to see some snow on radar not reach the ground -- aka virga).
- Intensity should be mostly light, but don't be completely surprised if it snows hard in some areas for a short time.
- Up to 1" could fall well north and west of DC (places like Frederick, Leesburg and Hagerstown), and it may be enough to whiten the ground in DC.
- Temperatures at the onset will be above freezing, but should fall to near (downtown) or below freezing (outlying areas) given the overnight timing. A few slick spots could develop given relatively cold temps of late (although the 40+ degree afternoon temps will thaw ground temps a bit).
- Steve will have more info on this little event in his PM update.
Tomorrow
Morning clouds will give way to PM sunshine as weak high pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures will be near 50, with overnight lows near 30 downtown and mid 20s in the suburbs.Wednesday
A warm front ahead of a developing area of low pressure in the midwest will try to move north through the area. If it can break through, after a few morning showers, it will turn springlike in the afternoon, with temperatures reaching the 50s. If the front hangs up to our south, it may remain overcast and cool, with highs in the 40s. Confidence is not particularly high with the warm front timing, but I'm favoring a warmer solution. By the overnight hours, I do expect the warm front through the area, and temperatures will be mild, with lows 40-45.Thursday
With strong southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes, unseasonable warmth is possible with temperatures well into the 60s. Scattered showers are possible overnight as a cold front crosses through the area with lows in the low 40s.Friday
High pressure should move in behind the cold front, with seasonable conditions. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 50s. Friday night should have clear skies with lows near freezing downtown, upper 20s in the suburbs.Saturday
High pressure building in from the northwest will direct cooler air towards the region, but sunshine and downsloping winds should still permit highs near 50. Saturday night looks chilly with lows 25-30.Sunday
High pressure to the north and northwest should continue influencing our weather. However, we may need to seriously start watching a developing storm in the center part of country, which depending on its track and evolution, could be a significant weathermaker for us Sunday night into early next week. High temperatures Sunday should be 45-50.Climatology
Average high temperatures for the coming week are in the low 50s, with average lows in the low 30s.
Poll Update
In last week's poll, we asked how cold will it get in February at Reagan National. And while February isn't over, I can safely say it will not get colder than 13 -- the minimum temperature one week ago. 65% of CapitalWeather.com visitors said 13 would be as low as it would go, whereas 25% of readers thought it would drop to 10-12. A few remaining visitors thought it would get colder. Not gonna happen.
With blowtorch warmth possible on Thursday, the mercury may go pretty high. And that's the subject of the new poll for this week.
Discussion Topic: Confidence
I'm looking for user feedback on the confidence bars you see that accompany CapitalWeather.com forecasts. Are they helpful? Do you pay any attention to them? Do you have suggestions as to how to make this kind of information more useful/helpful? Or do you like them just the way they are? Please let us know in the comment area.
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: TonightProbability: 50%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Please see the Week Ahead section of the post for details on this minor event (if it even materializes). We may need to start tracking a situation for early next week in this space beginning tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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