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Snowstorm Approaches - Your Refrigerated Friday

A. Camden Walker @ 2:02 AM

Estimated Next update: 11:00am

Confidence continues to be on the rise for a snowstorm in the greater DC metropolitan area. Immediately around the Washington Beltway, snow may start as early as mid-morning Saturday and accumulate 4"-7" before ending Sunday morning. Our team's first speculation for regional accumulation is illustrated below. However, let's continue storm discussion after a look at your...

Forecast: Friday at last

A chilly start in the 20s warrants a scarf this morning. Light southwesterly breezes will whisper, lighter than yesterday. You can count on the clouds to keep the sky dreary today, under partially sunny skies.

Temperatures will top off late this afternoon around 44 degrees. The pervasive clouds will remain fairly thick moving in and out of the area, but not remain solid until after sunset--ahead of the approaching storm.

Winter Storm Forecast: Saturday A.M., Feb. 11 -- Sunday A.M., Feb. 12
9am SAT to Noon:Snow showers begin far S&W, then spread toward DC and points N&E
Noon to 5pm: Light snow takes hold, becoming steady. 1" probable in metro area.
5pm to 8pm:
Moderate to Heavy snow. 3" possible in metro area.
8pm to 3am SUN:
Moderate snow & wind. 2" possible in metro area.
3am to 9am:
Snow tapers, windy. 1" possible.
Storm Impact: Travelcast:Schoolcast (Mon.):

There are increasing probabilities that the snow accumulation totals will head higher from here, rather than down. is currently 80% confident that this storm will materialize. We have observed weather models continuing to come into better agreement.

  • What factors may raise the accumulation forecast?
  • What factors might lower the expected accumulation amounts?

I will be sure to delineate scenarios for you in the morning. Suffice to say, numerous factors (and features) must come into play for DC to score big in the "Snowbowl."

Along with accumulation amounts, another question to address tomorrow will be whether or not the precipitation will remain snow or, rather, will mix with sleet. These and other uncertainties will be the topics for continued discussion. The team will continue to make very deliberate and measured forecast updates throughout today.

I will post at least two more separate, new updates as we go through this cold--but sunny--Friday before the storm.

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