Tuesday, February 28, 2006
The Sunshine Bores the Daylights Out of Me
Matt Ross @ 6:00 AM
Forecast
Today will feature a mix of clouds and sun with breezy conditions. High temperatures will be slightly below normal in the mid 40s. Conditions will moderate over the next few days, with the warmest readings occurring on Thursday with highs near 60 degrees. The weekend will bring seasonable weather for early March with highs around normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Colder air and possible storminess will greet us early next week. Even though we officially average about 1.5" of snow for March, late season snow has been largely absent over the last 10 winters, save for the large clipper in March of 1999. There is a chance we may buck the trend early next week. See more in the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball.
Warm and Cold Battle This Week, Courtesy of Accuweather
February Recap
Although official numbers will not be in until tomorrow, it appears that February will finish about 0.5 degrees above normal for the month. Looking at our Winter outlook issued back in October, we said that February would have normal temperatures. Additionally we stated that colder temperatures would return sometime in February after January's warmth. This was indeed true as the latter 2/3rd's of the month averaged about 2 degrees below normal after a warm start. February also saw 8.8" of snow at National Airport, or a few inches above normal for the month. This all fell in the February 11-12 storm and brought our seasonal total to 13.6" or just 2" shy of our 30 year seasonal norm. After slightly underestimating the cold of December and grossly underestimating the warmth of January, we finally got it totally right in February and thus get an A/A- for the month. We will do our final monthly review at the end of March, including a complete analysis of our entire Winter outlook. As with all of our grading and recaps, there will be no spin. Just an honest, critical evaluation of our thoughts. Our thoughts on Spring will appear periodically and unofficially on the site throughout the next few months. However, look for an official Summer outlook to be issued sometime in April.
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Monday, March 6th - Wednesday, March 8th
Probability: 15%
Potential Impact:
Commentary:With a block over or near Greenland still in place, cold air will reassert itself during most of next week. At the same time there is growing model consensus for a low pressure area to approach from the west and reform off the coast sometime early in the week. This setup would most likely be a snow or rain to snow scenario. I believe this event has a lot of potential. Nevertheless, given that it is nearly a week away, and climatology for DC in early March, we will forecast this event with necessary caution and skepticism. Stay tuned for further updates and specificity as warranted.
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