Saturday, March 18, 2006
Bone Dry
Jason Samenow @ 2:52 AM
A BIG area of high pressure to our northwest will attempt to build in over the weekend, bringing dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures. Meanwhile, a storm will organize over the southern Rockies and Plains--potentially affecting us as soon as Monday night. Your forecast details follow...
After a cold start (25-30), abundant sunshine should allow temperatures to rise to around 50. Still, a northwest breeze of 15-25mph will make it feel cooler -- particularly in shaded areas. Overnight, a light breeze will persist, and temperatures should drop to near 30 downtown, and in the mid 20s in the suburbs.
Sunday will be pretty much a carbon copy of Saturday, but warmer by about 5 degrees. Expect partly sunny skies and a high near 55.
Note: Given the breezy and dry conditions expected over the weekend, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday and a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday.
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued its Spring Outlook this week (thanks to WxNation for the tip) and it calls for equal chances of above or below average temperatures and precipitation for our area. In other words, the NWS has little clue what it will be like here for the balance of the spring. Of concern, however, is the lack of recent precipitation as Steve mentioned yesterday. The NWS Drought Monitor (pictured to the right) indicates we're abnormally dry. If precipitation doesn't start coming in soon, drought conditions are likely to set in. Fortunately, at least some precipitation is likely early next week...
Image courtesy National Weather Service
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tues, March 21
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A significant storm system will develop in the southern Rockies/Plains this weekend. It will move slowly eastward as it tries to undercut an area of cold high pressure influencing the eastern third of the nation (including our weather). This high may provide enough cold dry air so that some of the overruning precipitation from the storm falls as snow when it arrives Monday night--although climatology argues against it and surface temperatures will be marginal.
A better chance of snow will occur if the storm redevelops to our southeast, tapping Atlantic moisture and shifting our winds to northerly -- allowing cold air to remain in place. This looks to be a complex event and forecast confidence right now is low.
Today
After a cold start (25-30), abundant sunshine should allow temperatures to rise to around 50. Still, a northwest breeze of 15-25mph will make it feel cooler -- particularly in shaded areas. Overnight, a light breeze will persist, and temperatures should drop to near 30 downtown, and in the mid 20s in the suburbs.Tomorrow
Sunday will be pretty much a carbon copy of Saturday, but warmer by about 5 degrees. Expect partly sunny skies and a high near 55.Note: Given the breezy and dry conditions expected over the weekend, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday and a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday.
Drought developing?
The National Weather Service (NWS) issued its Spring Outlook this week (thanks to WxNation for the tip) and it calls for equal chances of above or below average temperatures and precipitation for our area. In other words, the NWS has little clue what it will be like here for the balance of the spring. Of concern, however, is the lack of recent precipitation as Steve mentioned yesterday. The NWS Drought Monitor (pictured to the right) indicates we're abnormally dry. If precipitation doesn't start coming in soon, drought conditions are likely to set in. Fortunately, at least some precipitation is likely early next week...Image courtesy National Weather Service
Chance of Accumulating Snow: Tues, March 21
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A significant storm system will develop in the southern Rockies/Plains this weekend. It will move slowly eastward as it tries to undercut an area of cold high pressure influencing the eastern third of the nation (including our weather). This high may provide enough cold dry air so that some of the overruning precipitation from the storm falls as snow when it arrives Monday night--although climatology argues against it and surface temperatures will be marginal.
A better chance of snow will occur if the storm redevelops to our southeast, tapping Atlantic moisture and shifting our winds to northerly -- allowing cold air to remain in place. This looks to be a complex event and forecast confidence right now is low.
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