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10-Day Outlook: Roller-coaster Weather?

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

Today's Weather

After a chilly start to the day (in the 30s in most locations), temperatures will rebound nicely, under mostly sunny skies, to the low to mid 60s by afternoon. Clouds will increase late in the day ahead of an approaching storm system. Mostly cloudy overnight, with a few sprinkles possible by dawn Friday; expect lows near 50.

Pattern Overview

It appears that -- for the first time in weeks -- way may actually see above normal precipitation during the first five days of this outlook, as a relatively active storm track, courtesy of an energized jet stream over the eastern US, may bring up to an inch of additional rainfall in the coming week. However, that rain will come at the expense of warm weather: most rainy days in April feature below-normal temperatures due to cloud cover and/or marine influences...

So, much like the rather changeable weather over the past week -- we've seen a near 30 degree spread in daytime highs -- unsettled conditions will characterize our weather over the next 5 days. High temperatures will range anywhere from balmy readings near 75 on (a dry) Friday, to raw, chilly readings only near 50 on (a wet) Saturday! When we average temperatures over the next five days, it looks like they'll come out a couple degrees below normal.

For the following five days of the outlook, it appears that weather will settle down quite a bit -- as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern US -- and we can expect a return to relatively tranquil, warm and dry conditions. In fact, I think we'll see few, if any, changes for significant precipitation, and I expect that temperatures will average some 3-6 degrees above normal during this period.

Image: A return to warmer (and drier) conditions can be expected by next week; the 6-10 day temperature guidance courtesy CPC.

The next 5 days (Apr 6-10)

Forecast highs/lows: 62/43 (normal = 64/44)
Forecast precip: Above normal?!

After pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s today, we can expect even milder temperatures on Friday, albeit with more unsettled weather and cloud cover. Look for plenty of morning clouds with scattered showers. The afternoon may feature peaks of sun, with a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm; we'll see muggy highs from 70-75 in most spots. Scattered showers may linger into the evening hours, as much colder air rushes in behind a cold front.

Saturday will be dramatically different than Friday: expect thick, overcast skies with periodic periods of light to moderate rain; more than 60% of the daylight hours may feature some precipitation -- so pretty close to "washout" -- and highs may struggle to eclipse the 50 degree mark! But Sunday should feature improving conditions, with a return to partly sunny skies, though with still-chilly temperatures in the mid 50s for highs and cold overnight temperatures in the 30s. Even nicer on Monday, with abundant sunshine and highs moderating into the low to mid 60s.

The following 5 days (Apr 11-15)

Forecast highs/lows: 69/51 (normal = 66/45)
Forecast precip: Back to below normal

At the moment, it looks live a very straightforward forecast for the period next Tuesday through Saturday as a ridge aloft builds over the eastern US and moisture appears to be all but locked away from the area. Under partly to mostly sunny skies most days, expect temperatures at above normal levels and ranging from the mid 60s on Tuesday, near 70 on Wednesday and Thursday, and perhaps into the low to mid 70s by the week's end. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

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