Wednesday, April 12, 2006
10-Day Outlook: Unsettled Spring Weather
Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM
Today's Weather
Today's forecast calls for plenty of morning clouds -- with a sprinkle or two possible in some spots -- and increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on. The afternoon will be mostly sunny with unusually balmy highs from 75-80 degrees in most spots. I wouldn't be too surprised if a few stations actually eclipse the 80 degree mark. Mostly clear and comfortable tonight, with lows from 50-55.
Pattern Overview
Weather over the next 10 days looks, on one hand, to feature very "typical" April-like conditions: changeable weather with multiple chances for precipitation; on the other hand, our weather will also be anything but "typical" for this time of year, with temperatures some 10-15 degrees above average over the next few days, a brief few days of temperatures near normal next Monday through Wednesday, and then the possibility for colder than normal weather for the middle and latter part of next week.
The most unsettled weather over the next ten days is, unfortunately, expected to be over this weekend as a stationary front stalls over the mid-Atlantic and allows waves of low pressure to track from west to east over our area. Much to the benefit of growing things, it appears that we stand a good chance of seeing between a half-inch and an inch of rainfall through Monday of next week. As for temperatures, despite ample cloud cover over the next three days, temperatures will be at least 10 degrees above normal courtesy a large area of high pressure to our south, pumping warm air to the north. Thereafter, temperatures will briefly return to normal levels, before likely falling to noticeably cooler levels by the latter part of next week. I think temperatures over the next five days will average 5-8 degrees above normal, with temperatures over the following five days some 3-6 degrees below normal.
Image above from the HPC's 5-day rainfall outlook.
The next 5 days (Apr 13-17)
Forecast highs/lows: 72/51 (normal = 66/46)
Forecast precip: Above normal
After today's highs approaching 80 under abundant afternoon sunshine, Friday will feature similarly warm temperatures, but we'll add in significant cloud cover as well as showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation appears to be during the middle part of the day; however, enough sunshine in the early (or late) part of the daylight hours will likely allow temperatures to reach 75 in most spots. Muggy and mild overnight Friday, with widely scattered showers still possible; expect lows 55-60. Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies, with showers possible, especially during the first half of the day. It is possible, however, that we'll see at least some partial clearing for the afternoon, with highs again near 75. A stray shower is possible again on Saturday night, with lows in the mid 50s. Yet another wave of low pressure pushes through the region on Sunday, bringing a continued blend of partly to mostly cloudy skies and periodic showers, especially during the daylight hours. Monday may feature a stray morning shower, though sunshine will prevail during the afternoon, with temperatures near 70/50 for highs/lows.
The next 5 days (Apr 18-22)
Forecast highs/lows: 64/44 (normal = 68/47)
Forecast precip: Below normal
The forecast for the early part of next week is a relatively high confidence one: expect partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday and Wednesday with very pleasant (and seasonable) temperatures both days in the mid 60s for highs, with overnight lows in the mid 40s. Thereafter, forecast confidence decreases, as there is model disagreement over whether we'll see a cold front (and attendant trough) push cooler air into the region by Thursday. Nonetheless, I think Thursday will feature a chance of showers with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low 60s. Friday and Saturday will probably feature rather cool weather for late April, with highs from the mid 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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