top border

Please note, not all links may be active. This site is a snapshot of an earlier time.

Cool ... But Consistent

Dan Stillman @ 11:40 PM

High temperatures will continue to run cooler than normal for the remainder of the week and possibly into the weekend, as they have for the last nine out of 10 days. But low 70s ain't too shabby, even with more clouds than sun and a shower or thunderstorm here and there.


The morning should be dry with wake-up temps in the upper 50s. We may see some peeks of sun, but in general there will be a good amount of cloudiness and about a 30 percent chance of an afternoon or early evening shower. High around 70. Evening temps will fall slowly through the 60s on their way to an overnight low in the low-to-mid 50s under partly cloudy skies.


Partly sunny in the morning, then turning partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front approaches from the west and gives us a 40 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm from lunchtime onward. Highs in the low 70s. We'll see partial clearing overnight as lows bottom out in the low 50s.


The cold front stalls to our south, but how far? There will also be an area of moisture to our north that could try to clip us. The models disagree on the placement of both features. Between the two, I think it'll be another partly cloudy day with -- you guessed it -- a chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70, dropping to a low Friday night in the low-to-mid 50s.

The Weekend

Looks decent, though I'm not yet ready to rule out the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, let's call it partly sunny with highs in the low 70s, and a Saturday night low in the low-to-mid 50s.

Any warm-up in sight? Tune in tomorrow for Josh's 10-day outlook.

How Do They Do That?

As Matt mentioned in his post yesterday, AccuWeather has come out with its 2006 hurricane forecast -- presented in the company's typically sensationalistic style: "One in Six Americans Could be Directly Impacted by 2006 Hurricane Season ... Hurricane Center Forecasts Potential Ripple Effect for All Americans," reads the forecast headline. (Yes, technically those statements might be true, but give me a break.)

AccuWeather is calling for three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) to strike the United States this year, and predicts that the Gulf Coast is at an increased risk early in the season, which runs from June through November. After reading the the Reuters story summarizing AccuWeather's forecast, Christina from Rockville asked, "How do you all know this stuff ahead of time? ... Is it a guess?"

It is a guess, but a somewhat educated one. Seasonal hurricane forecasts are made by observing current and predicted conditions in the atmosphere and ocean -- such as wind patterns in the upper atmosphere, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the presence of El Niño in the tropical Pacific -- and then looking back at previous hurricane seasons that had similar conditions. Statistical models help meteorologists crunch all the data and generate a forecast.

This year, above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic and the absence of El Niño in the Pacific have led models and forecasters to predict an active hurricane season. Warnings that the Gulf Coast stands an increased risk early in the season are based, in part, on historical tracks of hurricanes by month. On average, storms tend to aim more for the Gulf Coast during June into early July, before shifting their sights toward the Atlantic coast later in the season.

Graphic courtesy AccuWeather.

Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | email post Email this post