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Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

Today's Weather

Today's forecast calls for increasing clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We can expect a warm afternoon, with increasingly noticeable levels of humidity -- as dew points near 60 -- with highs reaching or eclipsing the 80 degree mark. Mostly cloudy overnight with a stray thundershower and muggy lows near 65.

The rest of the forecast, with a special focus on the holiday weekend weather, continues below after the Pattern Overview.

Pattern Overview

The warm-up I discussed in last week's outlook is, indeed, coming to fruition; luckily for us, however, thanks to the effects of a relatively innocuous-looking, but important, upper-level trough pushing through, our temperatures will be warm, but not hot -- though humidity levels will be creeping up.

While we have a huge ridge of high pressure building in over the eastern half of the US, a weak upper-level trough will push from the Great Lakes into the northern Mid Atlantic today into tomorrow (bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time period). However, more importantly, once this trough (and associated area of low pressure) pushes offshore by Saturday, it will essentially stall to our east.

As a result, then, instead of a deep southwesterly flow which might have pushed temperatures to 90 Sunday and Memorial Day, we'll experience some northeasterly flow on the back side of the area of low pressure, which will keep temperatures at much more bearable levels -- in the low 80s both days. Thereafter, we'll likely hold onto largely warm and dry conditions for the balance of the week.

Image above: a weak area of low pressure amid a broad, sprawling ridge of high pressure over the entire eastern US, will likely stall offshore Sunday and Memorial Day, keeping temperatures at bearable levels from 80-85 for highs.

Tomorrow's Weather

For the last day of work prior to the long holiday weekend, expect rather unsettled weather. We'll see plenty of clouds during the day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. It will be quite muggy and warm, too, with highs near 85 in many spots. Expect a lingering shower possible Friday evening into the overnight period, with mild lows near 65.

Holiday Weekend Weather

Saturday will feature a mostly cloudy start, with increasing sunshine as the day wears on. We can't rule out a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm during the first half of the day, but most locations will probably remain dry. We'll see somewhat-sticky afternoon highs near 80, with lows Saturday night in the low 60s under clearing skies.

Sunday will feature abundant sunshine, though little or no chance for precipitation, with afternoon highs in the low 80s along with continued somewhat-elevated humidity levels. Clear and pleasant Sunday night with lows again in the lower 60s.

Memorial Day will feature continued warm and dry conditions, with abundant sunshine and highs from 80-85 and overnight lows from 60-65. It will be perfect BBQ weather, but make sure to slather on the sunscreen and beware the still rather muggy conditions.

Extended Outlook

It appears quite likely that we'll hang onto generally warm and dry conditions throughout much of the rest of next week. I anticipate low chances for precipitation Tuesday through Thursday, with rather muggy highs generally from 80-85 and overnight lows mostly in the low to mid 60s. (I should mention, though, that some models suggest we may give "90" a run for its money by Wednesday.)

Most models, too, suggest that a trough of low pressure (and associated cold front) may bring showers and thunderstorms into the area late Thursday into Friday, and also may cool down temperatures just a bit Friday into the weekend. However, how much we cool down -- back into the upper 70s or back to the low 80s -- is an unanswered question.

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