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10-Day Outlook: Back to Normal...Phew!

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

Today's Weather

Forecast Confidence: HighToday's forecast calls for abundant sunshine much of the day, with warm afternoon highs near 87; scattered late-afternoon and early evening thunderstorms -- some of which may be strong -- cannot be ruled out, though many places should remain dry. Humidity levels will be noticeably lowered compared to recent days, however. Expect mostly clear skies overnight, with lows in the mid 60s.

The rest of the forecast, through the weekend and beyond, continues below after the Pattern Overview.

Pattern Overview

I am elated to report that in the it does not appear that any fronts will stall over the region over the next 10-days. Second, I'm quite relieved that we will not have to discuss "drought conditions" again for at least the next 8 weeks. In fact, it doesn't appear that there'll be much of any significant weather-related excitement for our area over the foreseeable future (other than rising flood-waters in the immediate short term); this is also quite okay with me after the past few days' "excitement."

What we will have is a return to refreshingly benign, quite typical summer weather for late June into early July. After a trough lifts out of the Northeast over the next 48 hours, surface high pressure will build into the area this weekend, and it looks like we'll be left with relatively zonal flow aloft (no strong ridges or troughs over the region) for much of next week.

The result will be temperatures about as normal as you can possibly get -- and mostly in the mid to upper 80s for highs and the mid 60s to near 70 for lows -- with a chance of what we meteorologists like to call "airmass" (or pop-up) thunderstorms each day. The next cold front will probably hold off until mid next week, and thereafter we can probably expect slightly cooler temperatures.

Pictured above: the GFS' representation of relatively zonal/flat flow over much of the continental US by the start of next week; this will produce very typical weather for this time of year.

The next 5 days (June 29 - July 3)

Forecast highs/lows: 87/68 (normal = 87/69)
Forecast precip: Below normal...phew!

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighAfter today's warm temperatures and chance for afternoon thunderstorms, we'll see slightly calmer weather on Friday, with abundant sunshine, slightly cooler highs near 84, and little, if any, chance for precipitation. Mostly clear and pleasant overnight, with lows in the mid 60s. Saturday and Sunday will feature nearly the same forecast: mostly sunny skies, bearable humidity levels and afternoon highs in the upper 80s (perhaps approaching 90 on Sunday) with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70. Monday will feature partly sunny conditions, a chance for afternoon thunderstorms, and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The following 5 days (July 4-8)

Forecast highs/lows: 85/67 (normal = 88/69)
Forecast precip: Near normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighDuring the following five days, it appears that the zonal flow aloft may be replaced with a trough in the Northeast by week's end; a cold front delivering this change to likely slightly cooler weather will probably push through on Wednesday. But for all-important July 4, the outlook is for partly to mostly sunny skies with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows near 70. We'll call for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, with highs near 85 and lows near 70. For Thursday through Sunday, high pressure will probably build back in, while weak northwest flow aloft will allow for dry conditions and pleasant high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s.

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