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10-Day Outlook: Decidedly Summery Stretch Ahead

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

Today's Weather

Nice Day StampToday's forecast calls for delightful conditions, with mostly sunny skies, low humidity levels and cooler than normal highs in the upper 70s to near 80 under breezy NW winds. Clear and cool tonight, with lows from the mid 50s in the cooler 'burbs to the lower 60s downtown.

The rest of the forecast, through the weekend and beyond, continues below after the Pattern Overview.

Pattern Overview

A decidely summery stretch of weather will develop over the next week to ten days over our area as the trough that has influenced conditions for the past five days lifts out and is replaced by an expanding ridge of warm, high pressure from the west. This warmth will likely feel even more noticeable than it might otherwise, due to the fact that the past five days have seen temperatures average 7 degrees below average; the month so far has seen temperatures average 2 degrees below average; and the past thirty days have seen temperatures average nearly a degree below average.

In addition, with a mean ridge over the eastern US, and the northern jet displaced somewhat to our north, there does not appear to be significant chances for widespread measurable precipitation events over the short- to middle-term. That being said, as we get into next week, the chances for garden variety, pop-up "airmass" thunderstorms will increase as dewpoints reach the muggy mid to upper 60s and the flow aloft becomes more out of southwest. (In addition, a weak cold front may deliver precipitation chances by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.)

Still, overall, over the next week to ten days, we are likely to see below normal precipitation and slightly above-normal temperatures (on the order of 2-4 degrees above average).

Pictured above: the GFS' representation of a trough over the Pacific NW, and a sprawling ridge over the eastern half of the US by next week.

The next 5 days (June 15-19)

Forecast highs/lows: 87/67 (normal = 84/66)
Forecast precip: Below normal

Forecast Confidence: HighAfter today's beautiful weather, we'll see warmer conditions on Friday, but humidity will still remain at comfortable levels; we'll call for mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs near 86; Friday night will give us clear skies with lows in the low to mid 60s. Saturday will be a warm one, with plenty of sunshine and muggy highs near 90, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday will be a scorcher, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs from 90-95, with lows near 70. More of the same on Monday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs near 90 and muggy overnight lows in the low 70s.

The following 5 days (June 20-24)

Forecast highs/lows: 87/68 (normal = 86/67)
Forecast precip: Below normal

Forecast Confidence: HighComputer modeling disagrees on exactly how long we'll hold onto the oppressive heat. However, there are indications that a cold front may pass through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing with it a chance of showers or thunderstorms both days, with highs likely in the mid to upper 80s and lows near 70. For the remainder of the forecast period (Thursday through Saturday), it appears that we'll hold onto near- to slightly-above normal temperatures mostly from 85-90 for highs and 65-70 for lows, under partly to mostly sunny skies.

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