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Historic June 2006 Flood: Day Three

Matt Ross @ 11:45 PM

After historic flooding during the past 48 hours, the DC area braces itself for the possibility of more flooding rain. This post begins with important links followed by the forecast and climate information.

Important Links and Resources

Timeline and Forecast

Today we will likely experience a continuation of the periodic torrential rain that has plagued the area for two days.

Here is an approximate timeline of what to expect:

6am to Noon
: Overcast with occasional light to moderate showers, with temps in the mid 70s.

Noon to 6pm
: Showers and Thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity, especially in Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William County, but affecting the entire metro area. Temps in the mid and upper 70s.

6pm to Midnight
: Occasional heavy downpours will continue west of town and increase in coverage over the entire metro area as the heaviest axis of rain pivots to the north and east.

During the afternoon and evening hours, flash flooding, road closures, and torrential downpours are likely. Rainfall totals of an additional 2-4" are probable with higher localized amounts through Wednesday morning.

Midnight to 6am: Heavy rain will eventually taper to lighter showers as we head toward dawn.

On Wednesday, it will warm up into the mid and upper 80s -- starting to break from this pattern, although occasional showers and thunderstorms (especially during the afternoon and evening) are likely through the end of the week.

Updates will be posted throughout the day as needed.

Image Above Right: The latest model data show a continuing plume of tropical moisture over our area for the next 36+ hours, with 2-4" rainfall potential.

Torrential rain in Reston yesterday afternoon, courtesy of Photographer, Kevin Ambrose. Another deluge of several inches of rain is likely this afternoon and evening, especially west of town.

Climate Information and Event Facts

As of about 10:30 last night, DCA had recorded 13.45" of rainfall for the month. What does this mean?
  • It is the wettest June of all time in over 100 years of records, easily surpassing the 11.53" that fell in June of 1972 mostly as a result of Agnes.
  • DCA recorded its second greatest 24 hour rainfall total yesterday with 7.09" ending at 8am Monday morning.
  • June 2006 is now the 4th wettest month of all time. The number 2 spot is less than 1" away and has a very good chance of being reached. We are 4" from reaching the #1 wettest month ever in DC (September 1934, 17.45"). I think we have about a 50-50 chance of attaining this record.
  • We are approaching a rain surplus of 5" for calendar year 2006. Any concerns over drought conditions are mostly irrelevant for the greater DC area.
Stay tuned for updates on these numbers over the next several days.

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