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10-Day Outlook: The Ups & Downs of July

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

Today's Weather

Nice Day StampToday's forecast calls for a mostly cloudy start to the day, with a few sprinkles possible south and east of town, but sunshine will quickly build in during the late morning. Thus, expect a mostly sunny and dry afternoon with refreshingly comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s under somewhat breezy NW winds. Clear and cool tonight, with "crisp" (for July) lows from 60-65.

The rest of the forecast, through the weekend and beyond, continues below after the Pattern Overview.

Pattern Overview

Highs temperature over the past five days have averaged an uncomfortable 90 degrees. Luckily, however, the cold front that pushed through overnight -- bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms with it -- has much cooler, drier air behind it in store for us for the next 72 hours. By Sunday, though, it looks like temperatures will creep up again to more typical levels for early July.

The above graphic is courtesy

Weak high pressure will hold tight over the Mid-Atlantic through at least Saturday, allowing for very pleasant (and cooler than average) temperatures. It appears, however, that as high pressure weakens on Sunday, we'll see a return to more southwesterly (read: warmer, more humid) flow as well as the potential for some showers and thunderstorms courtesy a weak area of low pressure which may be meandering off the East Coast by this time.

Thus, from Sunday through Wednesday of next week, we are likely to see another period of relatively hot, humid conditions, with scattered "airmass" thunderstorms and high temperatures from the upper 80s to low 90s. But by late Wednesday, another cold front may push through the region, bringing the probability of appreciably cooler temperatures again by Thursday and Friday.

The next 5 days (July 6-10)

Forecast highs/lows: 85/67 (normal = 88/70)
Forecast precip: Near-normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighAfter today's delightful temperatures in the upper 70s, we'll see temperatures just a touch warmer, under abundant sunshine, on Friday; expect highs near 81 with lows from the low to mid 60s. Saturday, too, will feature mostly sunny skies, with humidity still largely at bay, and high/low temperatures near 85/67.

Sunday's forecast is a slightly more challenging one, as some models suggest a weak mid-level closed low, perhaps associated with an even weaker low off the East Coast (along with increasing southwesterly flow), could provide the impetus for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. I'll call for more clouds than sun, with a slight chance of precipitation (most likely to our south and east) and warmer highs in the upper 80s. Warmer still on Monday, with mostly sunny skies, scattered afternoon thunder showers, and highs near 90.

The following 5 days (July 11-15)

Forecast highs/lows: 85/68 (normal = 88/70)
Forecast precip: Near normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighIt looks like we will remain under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft for Tuesday and Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies, humid conditions, and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. I expect highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows near 70, both days. Models indicate that by late Wednesday or Thursday our next cold front will try to push through the area. As such, expect higher chances for precipitation from late day Wednesday through mid-day Thursday; highs Thursday will probably be in the mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. At this far vantage point, Friday and Saturday look clear and cooler, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

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