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Changeable Weather & A Wet-ish Weekend?

Josh Larson @ 12:00 AM

The upcoming period will be one of transition as we leave our 90s behind and enter a pattern of unsettled (and cooler) weather over the weekend, with plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. More settled, summery weather returns for the start of next week.


Forecast Confidence: High Muggy with a stray shower. Today will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions and muggy afternoon highs in the upper 80s. A widely scattered stray thundershower cannot be ruled out for the afternoon or evening, especially south and west of town, but 80+ percent of the region will stay dry. Remaining mild overnight, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighBetter chance of storms We'll see similar weather on Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s with continued noticeable humidity. There is a better chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, though they'll still be of the scattered nature. Muggy with a stray shower overnight, with lows from 70-75.

This Weekend

Forecast Confidence: MediumCloudy & cooler, but wet? I hate to be the purveyor of bad news, but this does not look to be a good weather-weekend. Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low 80s; though the first half of the day may be mainly dry, widespread showers and thunderstorms will plague the region from the afternoon into the overnight hours. Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the day. Temperatures may not make it out of the upper 70s!

Larson's Long-Range

Pattern Overview
If you look at the image at right (GFS model forecast for late Saturday) you'll see a significant kink in the jet stream over the Great Lakes: this represents a trough which will be pushing southeast into our region at that time. This will allow for a slow-moving frontal system and associated areas of low pressure to provide extensive cloud cover, much cooler temperatures, and on-and-off periods of showers and thunderstorms almost all weekend. Models indicate that by Monday this jet energy will push to our east and will be replaced with a semi-zonal (nearly flat) jet stream over the eastern half of the US for much of next week.

Next Week's Forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 89/71 (normal = 89/71)
Forecast precip: Near-normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighWe'll be looking at almost as close as possible to "normal" weather for the bulk of next week; the aforementioned nearly-zonal jet configuration will allow for very typical late July heat and humidity with widely scattered ("airmass") thunderstorms possible, but not likely, almost every day. Most days will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with highs primarily from the upper 80s to low 80s and overnight lows from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

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