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Happy Fourth of July: Hot and Mostly Dry

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM


Heat Advisory in Effect for Urban Areas. Late Day T' Storm Risk -- Severe T'storm watch in effect until 9pm

Today will be partly sunny and hot. Afternoon highs will be 90-93. Most of the organized rain will stay to the north and west of the DC metro area during the day. Forecast Confidence: High However, during the late afternoon and evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms may approach the DC area. A few of these storms could be severe. There is a 1 in 3 chance that your location will be hit by some rain, so don't postpone any outdoor activities, but be prepared for a thunderstorm. Refer to Jason's forecast for the rest of the week.

Image Courtesy of the US Government

June Recap

Below is a snippet on June from our Summer Outlook issued in May. We did not do a good job with June.

June: +1F to +2F

June is the best candidate for the driest month of the summer. A strong ridge will develop over the east toward the very end of May and should persist through much of the month of June. We will see 7-10 90+ degree days and temps will frequently be in the mid to upper 80s for daytime highs.

June certainly ended with a flourish, as we recorded the wettest June in DC history. Temperatures, on the other hand, finished exactly normal for the month at 74.5 degrees.

We didn't do too well with our June outlook for the 2nd year in a row. While a ridge did develop at the end of May, and then again during the middle to end of June, there were also extended periods where we were under the direct or indirect influence of a broad trough. The latest trough axis aligned just to our west and set up the flooding rain scenario as it battled a ridge in the Western Atlantic, so it's very unlikely June will end up as the driest month of the summer as we suggested. Additionally, the cooler than predicted conditions led to five 90 degree days versus the 7-10 that we called for. Overall we grade a C-/D+, only passing by virtue of June temperatures finishing normal as opposed to below normal. We will have to wait and see if we can redeem ourselves in July. Our call was for normal temperatures and precipitation.

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