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Holding On to 90 for Now ... and Later?

Josh Larson @ 10:30 AM

We'll hold on to 90 for the time being, with showers and thunderstorms likely today into tomorrow. While the weekend looks "dry" as far as precipitation, the heat and humidity will remain, and linger into the beginning of next week.


Forecast Confidence: High Still muggy and stormy. We'll look for mostly cloudy skies today with occasional showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to near 90 (for our southern suburbs). The places most likely to see gusty afternoon thunderstorms will be the southern third of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into the overnight period.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighLingering storms? Friday's forecast is a bit trickier based on how fast the cold front moves through. We'll look for lots of clouds, especially during the first half of the day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms (likely focused primarily over the southern portions of the region) possible through the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs again nearing 90, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

This Weekend

Forecast Confidence: Very HighHeat and humidity remain. The good news about this weekend: we're looking at a mostly sunny conditions with low chances for precipitation, so most outdoor activities will go off without a hitch. The bad news about this weekend: despite (or because of?) mostly sunny skies, we'll hang onto our hazy, hot, and humid conditions, with highs again near 90 and overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. A stray afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled out on Saturday (<25% chance), though most places will remain dry, while Sunday should be dry for everyone.

Larson's Long-Range

Pattern Overview
With the northern stream of the jet-stream pushed quite far north (though not unusually so this time of year) we'll look for a continuation of hazy, hot and humid conditions courtesy generally westerly flow aloft and surface Bermuda High bringing in additional humidity from the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, we're pretty much stuck with this heat and humidity until the next trough builds into the Great Lakes and Northeast, which some models suggest will happen by the middle of next week. A look at the GFS forecast model (pictured above) suggests that by Wednesday a trough (and accompanying cold front) may try to build in -- which might lead to somewhat cooler, more comfortable weather for the second half of the week. Note, however, that the most recent model data calls now seriously calls into question next week's potential cooldown.

Next Week's Forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 87/68 (normal = 89/71)
Forecast precip: Near-normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMonday and Tuesday of next week look to feature mostly sunny skies, with continued relatively high humidity levels and highs near 90 and lows in the lower 70s. A very widely scattered thundershower could pop up either day, but most places will remain dry. Wednesday will feature partly sunny skies with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms, with highs remaining in the upper 80s but with overnight lows dropping to the upper 60s. It now looks as though the heat and humidity may linger on Thursday and Friday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the upper 80s to near 90.

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