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Hump week to be hump-like: Warm-Hot-Warm

Jason Samenow @ 12:39 AM

Summer heat, based on long term climate averages, peaks this week in the Washington, DC area. Through Wednesday, our averages of 89 (high) and 71 (low) are as warm as they get all year. By Thursday, the average high and low each drop a degree (to 88/70) and the climate will tend cooler until January 24, 2007. But climate is what we expect whereas weather is what we get. So will the weather cool in sync with the climate calendar? Kinda, sorta, maybe. See the graphic to the right and keep reading...


Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighWarm, summery. With weak high pressure overhead, expect plenty of sunshine. Today's airmass will be warm but not hot and the humidity will be tolerable. High temperatures should be 85-88. Overnight lows should be in the comfortable low 60s in the suburbs, and the upper 60s downtown.


Forecast Confidence: HighIncreasing humidity, very warm. As high pressure moves offshore, and winds begin turning southerly -- our characteristic mid-summer muggy pattern will re-assert itself. Expect highs of 87-90 and moderately high humidity. Overnight lows will likely range from the mid 60s in the suburbs to near 70 downtown.


Forecast Confidence: HighVery warm and sticky. With a Bermuda high in place, we'll continue under warm, moist tropical flow. Expect partly sunny skies and a 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm (late afternoon/evening). High temps will be near 90, and the humidity will be high. Overnight, it will be warm, with lows in the low 70s downtown (upper 60s suburbs).


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMuggy, very warm. Thursday will be just like Wednesday but several degrees warmer. Look for partly sunny skies, with a 20% chance of a thunderstorm. Highs should be 90-94 with high humidity. Overnight, expect lows in low to mid 70s downtown, and near 70 in the suburbs.

Pictured: A bird enjoys yesterday's low humidity. By photographer Ian Livingston.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighHottest day of the week? The way it looks right now, Friday holds the best potential to be a scorcher -- although nothing extraordinary. The area could see low to mid 90s with continued high humidity levels. And once again, some thunderstorms could develop late in the day (30% chance). Overnight, muggy conditions should prevail, with lows 70-75 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: MediumFrontal passage? PM Storms? As of now, it appears like a cold front could move through the area late Saturday -- increasing the chance of late day storms (40%). Of course, timing the passage of a front this far in advance is challenging, so confidence is not great. In any event, it should continue very warm and humid, with highs near 90. Saturday night could cool off a bit, with lows in the 60s (upper 60s downtown, low 60s suburbs).


Forecast Confidence: MediumCooler, dry and more comforable? If the front clears the area Saturday night, Sunday could be a pretty nice day with a mix of clouds and sun, lower humidity and high temps in the mid 80s. However, if the front sticks around, we'll stay in the soup with very warm and humid conditions and the risk of late day storms.

Poll Update

Last week's poll asked: "What will the hottest temp of the week be at National Airport?" 94-95 received the most visitor votes (49%) and 98-99 received the second most (22%). The hottest temp was actually 97, and only 9% of visitors selected 96-97.

The new poll asks about how busy the tropical season (already underway) will be in the Atlantic.

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