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Nice day, but slight pm t'storm threat

Jason Samenow @ 9:49 AM

Today


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighNice, but for hail producing t'storms? Mostly sunny skies this morning will give way to a mix of clouds and sun by mid afternoon. Humidity will be moderate and temperatures will be warm, but not hot. Expect highs near 85.

Cold air aloft will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to possibly produce a few thunderstorms. I'd put the chance of storms north of DC at about 25%, and south of DC at about 10%. Hail is the main threat with these storms. The National Weather Service has highlighted the storm threat in a special weather statement:
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND IN AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WASHINGTON DULLES AIRPORT TO LA PLATA MARYLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AND A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING.
The complete week ahead forecast will appear tomorrow. Tune into WeatherTalk Radio today at 3pm for Tony Pann's and Justin Berk's dose of weekly weather entertainment.

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