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Heat? Yes. Rain? Not so much.

Josh Larson @ 8:00 AM

Expect a continuation of the weather we've experienced recently, with temperatures generally a few degrees (in either direction) from average but with troublingly dry conditions lingering. The tropics may finally "wake up" over the next week to ten days, though the jury is still out on the implications.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighWarm; stray shower? Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today with warm afternoon highs near 90 in most locations. A weakening MCS interacting with a weak frontal system to our north will attempt to ignite showers or a thunderstorm over the area during the late afternoon or evening hours. However, given the recent pattern, I expect most of the area will remain dry. Partly cloudy overnight with a slight chance of an isolated shower still possible; lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighSlightly cooler. Friday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with high temperatures a notch lower -- in the mid 80s. Humidity levels will be quite bearable. Mostly clear skies overnight with lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighPretty pleasant. Though there has been some recent model disagreement regarding the progression of atmospheric features for this weekend, as Dan mentioned in yesterday's post, the forecast is coming into much clearer focus. High pressure pushing east into our region will keep temperatures at pleasant, and slightly below-normal levels on Saturday, and a tick warmer -- though still pleasant -- on Sunday.

Expect mostly sunny skies on Saturday with a cooling easterly breeze allowing for high temperatures to just barely surpass 80 in most locations. Mostly clear and pleasant Saturday night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday will again feature mostly sunny skies, though with a touch more afternoon heat and humidity, with highs in the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s; overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to near 70.


Pattern Overview
We'll see pretty tame weather for this time of August over the next week to ten days, thanks to a continued relatively deamplified (read: boring) atmospheric pattern aloft featuring, at times, either a nearly flat/zonal jet stream over the eastern US or a weak trough. As such, temperatures will generally remain within a few degrees of the average high/low of 84/67.

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 85/65 (normal = 84/66)
Forecast precip: Still below-normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighExpect partly sunny, humid, and warm conditions on Monday with widely scattered showers or thunderstorms possible; highs will approach 90 with overnight lows in the upper 60s. A cold front will likely push through Tuesday, giving us the best shot at rain all week: expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will probably build back into the region Wednesday through Friday, so expect abundant sunshine and dry weather with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels; highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tropical Bonus
It seems as though the Tropical season may finally be starting to pick up: we now have Tropical Storm Debby in the eastern Atlantic -- though this storm will curve back away from the US over the next couple of days; more notable is the area of disturbed weather south and east of the Windward Islands (the furthest east tropical wave on the image at right). The NHC believes that this area of storminess may strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 48 hours; they have good reason to believe this as many of global models do develop a well-defined low over the next several days -- which may then head into the Gulf of Mexico.

Image courtesy

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