top border

Please note, not all links may be active. This site is a snapshot of an earlier time.

Transition Period and Possible Tropical Action

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

Seasonably muggy conditions are on tap today with moderate forecast uncertainty as we head into the weekend.


Forecast Confidence: HighCloudy with Occasional Showers. Today will be mostly cloudy. There is a 40% chance of some light to moderate showers in your location, with chances greater in the northern suburbs. Heavier rain and thunderstorms will be more localized. Temps will reach 85-88 degrees on a modest southerly breeze.

Tonight and Wednesday

Forecast Confidence: HighDrier and Cooler. Shower activity will diminish as the overnight hours roll on, and temps will drop to a more pleasant 66-70 degrees. Wednesday will be partly to mostly cloudy with high temps of 83-86 degrees. There is a 20% chance of some showers, but conditions will be mostly dry and comfortable on northerly breezes.

Reference Jason's forecast for Thursday through the weekend. Additionally stay tuned for possible effects of Ernesto on our area as we head into the weekend.

Image Courtesy of Accuweather

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move over open Atlantic waters today with some gradual strengthening probable. A landfall on the southern tip of Florida is likely this evening or overnight at tropical storm force strength.

The potential is there for Ernesto to affect our area early in the weekend. However, current thinking has Ernesto moving mostly to our south and east. Impact to our area would be modest in the form of garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Of course with less than an inch of rain for the month so far we will take what we can get.

Several waves off the west coast of Africa are something to potentially watch for development as we head into next week.

A Peek into September and the Winter

Let me first say that next week I will do a full recap of August and our outlook for the summer. While we had some positive aspects, our summer outlook left something to be desired and I will address it.

September is a very interesting month for the DC area. Some months have reasonable corollaries in other months. While October and November are warmer, they are very close in average temperature to April and March respectively. December and February are companions as well, although February tends to produce bigger snowstorms. September, on the other hand, stands alone with no real peer. Much warmer than May and much cooler than June, September perhaps has the ideal weather in DC. Temps range from the mid 70s to mid 80s during the day and 55 to 65 at night, with the ever present threat of tropical activity. Personally, I consider August to be quite boring, and thus September that much sweeter. I hope you enjoy this month as much as I hope to.

The Farmers' Almanac released their annual winter forecast, and predictions are for a very cold winter. Despite their very questionable 80-85% accuracy rate, I think they may be onto something this year. With a weak el-nino looking more and more likely, I think our chances for a colder than normal winter are higher than usual. However, persistence argues against this occurrence as the average temp in 23 out of the last 30 winter months has been warmer than 30 year norms. Stay tuned for frequent updates this fall, and a full winter outlook in late October.

Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | email post Email this post