Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Weather on Auto-Pilot
Josh Larson @ 11:30 PM
If you don't care for surprises, the weather over the next week to ten days should suit you just fine. A noticeably stagnant atmospheric pattern, with nearly zonal flow aloft, will allow for pretty boring August weather with highs from 85-90 and lows from 65-70 for the foreseeable future.
A bit more humid. Today's forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with a touch more humidity than yesterday (with dewpoints in the 60s as opposed to the 50s) with similarly-warm afternoon highs near 88. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with lows in the mid and upper 60s.
More of the same. Friday's forecast calls for almost carbon copy conditions of today's weather: expect partly to mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs near 87, and mostly clear skies overnight with lows from 65-70.
Muggier; T-storms? We'll hold onto similar temperatures for the weekend, but we'll increase both the cloud cover and humidity levels as a weak cold front approaches and the flow over our region becomes more southwesterly.
Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies, muggy conditions (dewpoints above 70), and a slight chance of a stray thundershower during the late afternoon or evening hours. Sunday will feature partly sunny skies with a 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the morning and afternoon hours. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows from the upper 60s to low 70s.
Pattern Overview
Weather will be very stable over the next week to ten days as a result of an almost completely zonal (flat) jet stream over the northern US. We'll see both temperatures and humidity levels at near normal levels for this time of August. While some model runs hint at a cool-down by mid next week, as a result of a trough trying to push into the Northeast, I'm skeptical of this scenario and think that any noticeable cool down will have to wait until next weekend at the earliest.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 87/67 (normal = 85/68)
Forecast precip: Near-normal
The forecast over the next week could hardly get any easier: with continued southwesterly to westerly flow aloft, expect not-uncomfortable conditions for late August in DC: daytime highs will range from 85-90, with overnight lows from 65-70. Humidity levels for much of the week are likely to be moderate, but not unbearable. There are some indications that we may have a better shot at scattered thunderstorms next week -- especially Monday and Tuesday -- than we have the past week or two; that would be good for lawns.
Tropical Bonus
So far this tropical season has proven to be almost completely opposite that of last summer, during which almost every area of disturbed weather over the tropics strengthened into a tropical storm or hurricane; this summer, however, almost all tropical disturbances have not really strengthened (due, in part, to excessive dry air or wind shear). Case in point: the two under-achieving lows right now -- one in the Gulf of Mexico, the other off the Carolinas -- which can't seem to get their act together. It looks likely (with near-unanimous model guidance) that both disturbances will stay weak and disorganized over the next few days with few or any impacts.
Today
A bit more humid. Today's forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with a touch more humidity than yesterday (with dewpoints in the 60s as opposed to the 50s) with similarly-warm afternoon highs near 88. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with lows in the mid and upper 60s.Friday
More of the same. Friday's forecast calls for almost carbon copy conditions of today's weather: expect partly to mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs near 87, and mostly clear skies overnight with lows from 65-70.The Weekend
Muggier; T-storms? We'll hold onto similar temperatures for the weekend, but we'll increase both the cloud cover and humidity levels as a weak cold front approaches and the flow over our region becomes more southwesterly. Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies, muggy conditions (dewpoints above 70), and a slight chance of a stray thundershower during the late afternoon or evening hours. Sunday will feature partly sunny skies with a 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the morning and afternoon hours. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows from the upper 60s to low 70s.
Pattern Overview
Weather will be very stable over the next week to ten days as a result of an almost completely zonal (flat) jet stream over the northern US. We'll see both temperatures and humidity levels at near normal levels for this time of August. While some model runs hint at a cool-down by mid next week, as a result of a trough trying to push into the Northeast, I'm skeptical of this scenario and think that any noticeable cool down will have to wait until next weekend at the earliest.Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 87/67 (normal = 85/68)
Forecast precip: Near-normal
The forecast over the next week could hardly get any easier: with continued southwesterly to westerly flow aloft, expect not-uncomfortable conditions for late August in DC: daytime highs will range from 85-90, with overnight lows from 65-70. Humidity levels for much of the week are likely to be moderate, but not unbearable. There are some indications that we may have a better shot at scattered thunderstorms next week -- especially Monday and Tuesday -- than we have the past week or two; that would be good for lawns.Tropical Bonus
So far this tropical season has proven to be almost completely opposite that of last summer, during which almost every area of disturbed weather over the tropics strengthened into a tropical storm or hurricane; this summer, however, almost all tropical disturbances have not really strengthened (due, in part, to excessive dry air or wind shear). Case in point: the two under-achieving lows right now -- one in the Gulf of Mexico, the other off the Carolinas -- which can't seem to get their act together. It looks likely (with near-unanimous model guidance) that both disturbances will stay weak and disorganized over the next few days with few or any impacts.
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