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The Week Ahead: Hot Start, Uncertain Finish

Jason Samenow @ 6:00 AM

The number of consecutive 90°+ days is likely to reach a dozen today, before the current hot spell ends Tuesday and Wednesday. Mugginess returns late in the work week while the weekend forecast remains a bit up in the air. The week ahead details follow...


Forecast Confidence: HighSticky, PM Storms. A cold front approaches the region late today. Ahead of it, southwesterly flow will raise humidity levels. After some early morning storms, expect the sun to gradually emerge from the clouds, with high temperatures reaching about 90. By late afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms are likely (50% chance) to develop, a few of which could could be strong/severe (10-15% chance). The Storm Prediction Center places the region under a "slight risk" of severe storms -- with the risk highest north of the area. These storms could impact Screen on the Green on the Mall. The main severe threat with any storms would be locally strong winds. Overnight, skies should gradually clear, with temperatures dropping into the low 70s downtown and upper 60 in the suburbs.


Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighBecoming sunny, and less humid. High pressure building in from the northwest will help usher in dryer air, and slightly cooler temps. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with noticeably reduced humidity in the afternoon. Overnight, temperatures are likely to drop into the mid 60s downtown, and near 60 in the suburbs, making for good sleeping weather.


Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighSunny and pleasantly warm. With high pressure centered over the Northeast, we'll have mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. High temperatures will be mostly in the mid 80s. Overnight hours will be clear, with lows in the mid 60s downtown and near 60 in the suburbs.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighIncreasing humidity, late day storm? As high pressure moves offshore, winds will turn more southerly, allowing moister air to creep into the region. Late in the day, a few storms could develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures should max out in the upper 80s. Overnight, the front may pass just to our south or stall over the region. Low temperatures are likely to be near 70.

Friday through Sunday

Forecast Confidence: MediumTwo scenarios: clearing and dry, or humid with PM showers/storms. The fate of Thursday night's front has major implications for the weather Friday through Sunday. If it stalls over the region as some guidance suggests (scenario 1), expect muggy conditions to persist over the weekend, with a 30-40% risk of afternoon showers and storms each day. High temperatures would be in the mid to upper 80s (overnight lows 65-70), under partly to mostly cloudy skies. If it pushes to the south (scenario 2), dry and pleasant air should build into the region, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s (overnight lows 60-65). If I had to pick between these two scenarios, I'd go with scenario 2 -- but with us very close to muggier air, just to the south.


The average high this week is in the mid to upper 80s, with average lows near 70 downtown and the mid to upper 60s in the suburbs.

Poll Update

Last week's poll asked: What will be National Airport's highest temperature? It turned out to be 101, so the 44% participants who selected 101-103 were correct. The most popular selection was 98-100, the choice of 46% of poll participants.

This week, we ask for your help in letting us know your primary reason for coming here. This information will help us determine what content offerings to focus on. Thanks.

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