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Cool September Continues

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

Below average temperatures will prevail the next couple days. After a dry day today, some rain arrives tomorrow.


Forecast Confidence: HighDry and Seasonably Cool. Today will be partly cloudy in the AM, with increasing sun in the afternoon. Afternoon temps will climb to 70-73 degrees with a light breeze. It will feel very October like.

High pressure keeps us dry and cool today, courtesy Accuweather.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Forecast Confidence: HighAfternoon Showers. Tonight, clouds will be on the increase with a slight chance of a shower toward dawn. Lows will be in the mid 50s. Light to moderate rain with a possible thunderstorm will likely move into the area late tomorrow afternoon or early evening as highs reach the 70 degree mark. Chance of rain is 60%. See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.

Florence and Gordon

Neither Hurricane Florence or Tropical Storm Gordon are threats to the United States. Florence, which is moving away from Bermuda and toward the northeast, will gradually lose strength, though it might brush Newfoundland tomorrow. Gordon will likely become a hurricane, but will not be a threat as it recurves east of Bermuda. Hard to believe that last year we were already dealing with Hurricane Ophelia at this time.

Climatology Notes and Winter Hint

Through the 1st 11 days of September, DC is running about 4 degrees below normal. As there is no real persistent heat in the near future, it is looking more and more likely that the month will finish below average. This would be only the 5th below average month in the last 23 at National Airport. More interesting is that it has the chance to become only the 3rd September on record to have an average temp in the 60s after an August that finished in the 80s. The other 2 were 1975 and 1988.

Our outlook won't be coming out for at least another month, but being the snow lover I am, I have already been researching the upcoming winter. Sea surface temperatures have been steadily warming in the Equatorial Pacific and it is looking probable that we will experience a weak to moderate El Nino this winter. Typically these are colder and snowier for the DC area, but there are exceptions. In addition there are a number of other indicators such as summer temperatures and hurricane season that help to shape a long range outlook. Even when all these factors are combined there is still a high level of uncertainty in forecasting from this range.

My early indications are showing a slightly colder than normal winter, but one that could end abruptly in mid to late February with a warm March to follow. January looks like it will be the coldest with respect to normal of the four months. Right now snow looks to be average to slightly above. Nothing historic, but not a dud either. Stay tuned for further updates.

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