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From Autumn to Summer... and Back Again?

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

We'll hang on to another day of cool, overcast skies with occasional showers today, but then we'll see a return to sunshine and warmer conditions on Friday which will last through the weekend and into the start of next week. Models suggest, however, that a rather potent cold front may drop our temperatures back to cooler (autumnal?) levels by the second half of next week.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighDamp and dreary. Expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies today with occasional showers, especially during the morning hours. Highs will mostly hang out in the lower 70s under the aforementioned thick cloud cover. Scattered showers and drizzle may persist in some spots through the evening hours. Mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the lower 60s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMuch improved! Expect a blend of clouds and sun during the morning hours giving way to mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon. We can expect afternoon highs near 80, with a pleasant northerly breeze. Clear and comfortable Friday night, with lows from 60-65 in most spots.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighSplendid weather. Looks like a winner of a weekend with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevailing. Expect a blend of clouds and sun on Saturday with highs at or just above 80 degrees; clear overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s. Sunday will feature abundant sunshine with warmer highs near 85 and overnight lows predominately in the mid 60s.


Pattern Overview
After our area of low pressure responsible for today's clouds and moisture pushes off to our east on Friday, high pressure will build into the region for the weekend and the start of next week, with generally westerly flow aloft allowing for near to slightly above normal temperatures, generally from 80-85, Saturday through Monday.

Thereafter, models suggest that another cold front and associated trough of low pressure will approach our area by Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, however, there is model disagreement regarding just how cool the air will be behind the front -- i.e., whether we'll see near normal or below normal temperatures for the second half of the week into the start of the weekend; I'm leaning slightly more towards the latter scenario.

Pictured: the GFS' depiction of the rather strong trough (and associated cold front) approaching by Tuesday of next week.

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 76/58 (normal = 78/61)
Forecast precip: Near normal

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighExpect partly to mostly sunny and warm conditions and Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and unsettled with a 50/50 shot of showers each day; highs will depend largely on cloud cover, but I expect they'll hang out in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday and Friday look sunny and dry, but cool, with temperatures probably below average: in low to mid 70s for highs with crisp overnight lows in the 50s -- with perhaps some scattered readings in the 40s across the cooler suburbs!

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