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Great Midweek Weather

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

A typical early autumn pattern is taking hold. Pleasant weather will dominate. A late week chill will likely modify as we exit the weekend.


Forecast Confidence: HighClear, Gorgeous. Today will be beautiful with weather close to seasonal norms. Expect highs of 75-78 with a refreshing breeze. The sun will be bright and the skies blue. The type of weather that makes DC autumns so nice.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighCarbon Copy. Tonight will be clear with great sleeping weather. Overnight lows will be 47-52. Wednesday will be another great day. Sunny, with highs around 78. See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.

Tropical season continues to underwhelm, as we experience classic fall weather, courtesy of Accuweather.

Keith Allen's Outlook

For almost 20 years, Keith Allen (KA) has put out a winter outlook for DC on the autumnal equinox. Mr. Allen is affiliated with Verizon weather. You know...936-1212. Before the internet, this was one of my primary weather sources. Often calling from school hoping for an upgrade to a winter storm warning. Keith has had very good success in capturing the overall feel of the winter from several months out. Against many calls for a cold and snowy winter, KA called for warm and snowless in 2001-02. The following winter, 2002-03, he called for the snowiest winter since 1995-96. These were two of his recent triumphs. Last winter was one of his few misses as he called for cold and snowy, and overall 2005-06 winter was above normal temps and below normal snow.

This upcoming winter KA is calling for a 2001-02 repeat of sorts. December, January, and February all finishing 2-4 degrees above normal temps with 8" of snow at National Airport (DCA). We are still several weeks from issuing our winter outlook here at CapitalWeather, but I think KA will have trouble verifying this winter. Despite his legacy of success, I think the strengthening El Nino will make it hard for his forecast to come to fruition. Unless the El Nino gets very strong(unlikely in my opinion), or weakens prematurely(possible, but still unlikely), I think we have a very strong chance of having at least one cold winter month and possible more. Additionally, near normal snow at the least is likely in my opinion. Currently, I am not favoring a blockbuster winter, but I think a repeat of 1997-98 or 2001-02(warm and snowless) is unlikely. More to follow. Stay tuned.

Radio Show

TV weather personalities, Tony Pann and Justin Berk, were kind enough to let me, Ian and administrator Randy Legette, fill in for them Sunday on Weather Talk Radio. The podcast should be up soon and will be available at Podweather. We covered a variety of topics and had a great segment with Chicago meteorologist Brian Lovern, formerly of Accuweather. Additionally, we were lucky to be able to broadcast simultaneously with the passage of a cold front which brought a period of heavy rain to the Baltimore area. This was our second radio appearance, and as much as we enjoyed it, our dayjobs are safe.

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