Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Tranquil Weather Settles In
Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM
Expect generally tranquil and dry weather over the next five days, in fairly dramatic contrast to the past week's mostly cloudy and rainy conditions. Temperatures over the ten days -- which will be slightly warmer over the next few days, then cooling off a bit next week -- look quite seasonable, as highs and lows will stay within a few degrees of their respective climatological averages Pictured: Sunset Wednesday evening in Chantilly, VA; by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
Today
Mostly sunny + pleasant. After a refreshingly cool start to the day, expect plenty of sunshine today with comfortable, near-normal temperatures close to 83 for highs. Mostly clear and cool overnight, with lows from the mid 50s across the cooler 'burbs to the low 60s downtown.Friday
A few more clouds. Expect a mostly sunny start to the day on Friday, though some mid and high-level clouds will stream in by the afternoon. There is the slightest chance of a passing sprinkle or stray shower during the late afternoon through overnight hours, but almost all locations should remain dry. We'll see afternoon highs near 84, with overnight lows from 60-65. The Weekend
Quite nice. Expect relatively pleasant weather continuing for the weekend, the result of a rather benign atmospheric weather pattern: we'll hold onto a mix of clouds and sun both days, with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Like Friday, a passing shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out on Saturday, but the majority of us will again stay dry. LARSON'S LONG-RANGE
Pattern Overview
Weather over the next week will be rather uneventful, since the upper-level pattern aloft will be completely unremarkable. There is excellent model agreement that we'll keep a very weak trough over the Northeast over much of the next week. However, due to the weakness of the trough, we're looking at a rather de-amplified pattern where individual weak waves of low pressure might be difficult to pin-down or time: this is the reason for the outside chance of a sprinkle or passing shower (despite partly to mostly sunny skies) for Friday through the start of next week. A cold front may try and pass through Wednesday into Thursday.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 79/61 (normal = 80/63)
Forecast precip: Near normal
Expect a continuation of relatively tranquil weather on Monday and Tuesday with about an equal mix of clouds and sun competing for space in the sky; once again, a rogue sprinkle or shower may pop up here or there, but generally remaining dry. Expect high temperatures from the upper 70s to the low 80s, with overnight lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday into Thursday are a tough call, since some models suggest a cold front might bring clouds and showers during this period; I'll call it partly to mostly cloudy with a 50/50 shot of showers and cooler highs in the mid to upper 70s. Look for a return of sunshine on Friday with temperatures likely settling at just below seasonal levels in the upper 70s.Tropical Bonus
At the moment the Tropics are actually relatively active -- at least compared to several weeks ago -- with several tropical waves and areas of low pressure in addition to Tropical Storm Florence. That being said, while it's quite likely that Florence may strengthen into a hurricane, perhaps even a major hurricane, there is good model agreement that it is likely to re-curve away from the US sometime in the next week due to the trough over the eastern US, and a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic, acting in tandem to shunt Florence away from the continental US. Additional tropical storm formation is possible, but not likely, over the next week, with the highest threat area being the southern Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Image above courtesy Accuweather.com.
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