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Archetypical Fall Weather?

Josh Larson @ 1:00 PM

Another day of rather mild temperatures near 70 will, with the help of an approaching cold front and the possibility of some showers tonight into tomorrow, give way to more seasonable temperatures Friday through the weekend; after that, we'll likely return to below normal temperatures for much of next week.


Forecast Confidence: HighDreary-ish. After a foggy start, expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies for the remainder of the day. Due to limited sunshine, highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees in most places. Expect overcast skies tonight, with some scattered showers possible by dawn on Friday, with lows near 60.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighShowery start? We'll wake up to overcast skies Friday morning with scattered showers (and perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder), especially during the morning hours. The afternoon will feature drying conditions, though with mostly cloudy skies remaining, with temperatures likely dropping from the mid 60s to the upper 50s. Clearing skies and turning noticeably cooler overnight Saturday, with lows in the low to mid 40s.

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighGorgeous. Weather this weekend looks fantastic -- great for checking out the fall foliage -- with high pressure firmly in control and temperatures slightly below average. Both days should feature abundant sunshine with highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.


Pattern Overview
For now, we'll hold on to above normal temperatures today and seasonable temperatures Friday into the weekend; however, in what is currently shaping up to be a rather active October pattern for our region (with cooler than normal temperatures and above average precipitation), due to an amplified jet stream aloft, we'll see the return of a rather strong trough of low pressure over the Northeast US by the start of next week. The result will be chilly air filtering into the area from the north and west and below normal temperatures much of next week.

Above: the GFS' representation of cold air (at 850mb) filtering into the area from the north and west by the start of next week; courtesy

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 60/43 (normal = 65/46)
Forecast precip: Near normal

Forecast Confidence: HighThe cold front associated with the approaching trough of low pressure aloft will push into the area on Monday, bringing with it mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of showers, especially during the second half of the day. Highs will be in the upper 50s with lows in the 40s. Tuesday through Thursday should feature partly to mostly sunny skies with crisp highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Slightly milder temperatures, perhaps between 60-65, along with an increase in cloud cover, is possible on Friday.

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