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More October Oscillation

Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM

A cool, soaking rain today will yield to seasonably warm conditions as we head toward the weekend. Temperatures will then modify to seasonably cool as we head into next week.


Forecast Confidence: HighChilly, Steady Rain. Rain will overspread the entire metro area this morning. Rain will be light to moderate throughout the day with afternoon highs of 57-60 before tapering to showers early this evening.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighPartial Clearing, Warmer. Skies will be cloudy tonight with some light showers or drizzle possible and lows only dropping to the mid 50s. After some early morning fog/mist on Wednesday, skies will become partly cloudy as highs warm to 72 degrees. See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.

Pleasant and crisp Autumn sky near 12th and Constitution, by Photographer, Kevin Ambrose

More October, More Winter

The cold conditions of the last few days have quickly eaten away and eroded our positive temperature departures for the month. As we head into the 2nd half of the month we are running about 1.6 degrees below normal. If we continue the trend and stay below normal for the month, it would only be the 4th time in the last 30 years that we had a back to back below average September/October. This trend does not seem to have a correlation with the following winter, but it is interesting nonetheless.

It is mid October and the winter outlooks are starting to be released one after the other. The latest came yesterday from Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Accuweather as he released his winter outlook to paid subscribers. As is his bias, Joe unsurprisingly went for a cold and snowy winter for the I-95 corridor. For the DC area he is calling for winter temps to average more than 1 degree below normal with snowfall 150% of normal. *A sort of classic mid-Atlantic weak/moderate el nino winter ala 1957-58, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1986-87, 2002-03*(my own interpretation/paraphrasing). So far most of the outlooks I have seen have run the gamut from cold and snowy to warm and snowless. Our own outlook will be released in 2-3 weeks and currently I am somewhere in between the 2 extremes, but leaning slightly towards cold and snowy. Stay tuned.

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